Sassuolo 1-6 Napoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Napoli (36%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sassuolo face Napoli.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sassuolo and Napoli meet at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Serie A, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 28 February 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Sassuolo (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sassuolo's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Napoli's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Napoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Napoli's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Napoli are 0.80 PPG clear of Sassuolo in recent Serie A fixtures (1.30 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Across the last 5 meetings, Napoli have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Sassuolo's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2023, ended 0–2 with Napoli winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Napoli have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Sassuolo — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Napoli — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sassuolo 59% versus Napoli 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sassuolo 59% | Napoli 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.17 xG and Napoli 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 0.967 / defence 1.263 | Napoli attack 0.862 / defence 0.830. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.165. Data: 63 Sassuolo games / 63 Napoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 32% | Draw 32% | Napoli 36%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | Napoli 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Napoli as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Napoli if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sassuolo 70% | Napoli 30%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs Napoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Feb 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 32% | Draw 32% | Napoli 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG Sassuolo 1.17 / Napoli 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 0.967 / def 1.263 | Napoli attack 0.862 / def 0.830 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Napoli (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Napoli xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sassuolo vs Napoli kick off?
Sassuolo vs Napoli kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 28 February 2024 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Sassuolo vs Napoli?
Sassuolo 1 - 6 Napoli.
Where is Sassuolo vs Napoli being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Sassuolo vs Napoli part of?
Sassuolo vs Napoli is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs Napoli?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 32% chance of winning, Napoli a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Napoli?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sassuolo and Napoli will score (BTTS).
Will Sassuolo vs Napoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Napoli?
Record (5 meetings): Sassuolo 0W | Draws 1 | Napoli 4W.
What form are Sassuolo and Napoli in?
Sassuolo (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Napoli (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sassuolo's attack at 0.97x the league average against Napoli's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Napoli's attack (0.86x) against Sassuolo's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
32%
3.15
32%
3.13
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
2.44
1.27
Napoli xG
3.15
32%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
9%
11.20
11%
8.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.1 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs Napoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and Napoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Sassuolo and 1.27 for Napoli, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs Napoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 63 outings, Sassuolo have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 17W 14D 32L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Napoli's form line: 38W 13D 12L from 63 games, 2.02 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-D. The sample for Napoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Napoli are the form team by 0.99 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sassuolo.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sassuolo have posted 1.29 PPG from 31 outings (11W 7D 13L).
On the road, Napoli have gone 18W 7D 6L from 31 away games — 1.97 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Napoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sassuolo are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Napoli are on 1.76 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Napoli in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Blended
Napoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sassuolo and Napoli in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 17W 14D 32L in their last 63 games (1.03 PPG), while Napoli have gone 38W 13D 12L in their last 63 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or Napoli away?
Napoli's away record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 1.29 PPG; Napoli away: 1.97 PPG.
Have Sassuolo or Napoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sassuolo have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Napoli in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Napoli have won the last 7 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Napoli won 6-1 on 30 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sassuolo have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Napoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Sassuolo
1
Draws
7
Napoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Napoli?
From 8 meetings on record, Sassuolo have won 0, Napoli have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and Napoli last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Napoli 1-0 Sassuolo.
Who has won more matches between Sassuolo and Napoli?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sassuolo 61%, Napoli 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Sassuolo) and 45% (Napoli).
On the defensive side: Napoli in 42%; Napoli in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / Napoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sassuolo play Napoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Sassuolo's recent matches and 39% of Napoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sassuolo vs Napoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Sassuolo's recent games and 45% of Napoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sassuolo and Napoli tend to score early?
Sassuolo have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Napoli in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Napoli run riot with a 1-6 hammering of Sassuolo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Napoli beat Sassuolo 1-6 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.17 xG and Napoli 1.27 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-6 for 7 actual goals. Napoli outscored their 1.27 projection by 4.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 0.97 / defence 1.26 against Napoli attack 0.86 / defence 0.83, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 32% | Draw 32% | Napoli 36%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 59%, Napoli 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sassuolo's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Napoli's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.03. That form edge translated into the three points. Sassuolo (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Napoli (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.