Hellas Verona 1-2 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hellas Verona at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hellas Verona vs Genoa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 31 as Hellas Verona welcome Genoa to Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 7 April 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Hellas Verona have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Hellas Verona have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Genoa — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Genoa away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Hellas Verona) versus 1.30 (Genoa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Hellas Verona, 1 for Genoa and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2023, ended 0–1 with Genoa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Hellas Verona in-play and half-time data (68 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Genoa in-play and half-time data (68 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 54% versus Genoa 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 41% | Genoa 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.07 xG and Genoa 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.870 / defence 1.117 | Genoa attack 0.738 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.190. Data: 68 Hellas Verona games / 30 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 36% | Draw 33% | Genoa 31%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | Genoa 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 42% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hellas Verona at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hellas Verona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.05 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. This conflicts with form data: Hellas Verona 70% | Genoa 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Apr 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 36% | Draw 33% | Genoa 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Hellas Verona 1.07 / Genoa 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.870 / def 1.117 | Genoa attack 0.738 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Genoa xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Genoa kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Genoa kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 7 April 2024 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Genoa?
Hellas Verona 1 - 2 Genoa.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Genoa part of?
Hellas Verona vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 36% chance of winning, Genoa a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Hellas Verona and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Genoa?
Record (3 meetings): Hellas Verona 1W | Draws 1 | Genoa 1W.
What form are Hellas Verona and Genoa in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Genoa (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hellas Verona's attack at 0.87x the league average against Genoa's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Hellas Verona's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
36%
2.78
33%
3.07
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.05
0.98
Genoa xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
13%
7.41
11%
9.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 12.6 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 0.98 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 68 outings, Hellas Verona have picked up 0.90 PPG on a 14W 19D 35L record — L-W-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Genoa's form line: 29W 22D 17L from 68 games, 1.60 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-D.
Put side by side, Genoa are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hellas Verona.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hellas Verona have posted 1.19 PPG from 32 outings (10W 8D 14L).
On the road, Genoa have gone 10W 10D 12L from 32 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Hellas Verona are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.25 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Genoa in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Current Season
Genoa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Genoa in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 14W 19D 35L in their last 68 games (0.90 PPG), while Genoa have gone 29W 22D 17L in their last 68 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Genoa away?
Genoa's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.19 PPG; Genoa away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Hellas Verona or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hellas Verona have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Genoa in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Genoa have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Hellas Verona's record when hosting Genoa specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Hellas Verona
2
Draws
4
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Genoa?
From 8 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 2, Genoa have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Hellas Verona 0-2 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Genoa?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Genoa see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 59%, Genoa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Hellas Verona) and 47% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Genoa in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 50% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hellas Verona vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Hellas Verona's recent games and 47% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hellas Verona and Genoa tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Genoa in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Genoa defy the odds to beat Hellas Verona 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Hellas Verona 1-2 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.07 xG and Genoa 0.98 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Genoa outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.87 / defence 1.12 against Genoa attack 0.74 / defence 0.90, drawn from 68/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 36% | Draw 33% | Genoa 31%, with Hellas Verona to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Genoa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 41%, Genoa 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (68 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Genoa's trading profile (68 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Genoa arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.90. That form edge translated into the three points. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.