Genoa 1-1 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genoa at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genoa vs Frosinone encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Genoa host Frosinone at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie A, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 March 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Genoa — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Genoa have posted 4W 4D 2L at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Frosinone have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Frosinone away from home this season: 0W 1D 9L from 10 away games — 0.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Genoa are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Genoa register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Frosinone in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Genoa, 2 for Frosinone and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2023, ended 1–2 with Frosinone winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Genoa in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Frosinone in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 46% versus Frosinone 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 40% | Frosinone 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 2.08 xG and Frosinone 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.965 / defence 1.150 | Frosinone attack 0.768 / defence 1.578. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.233. Frosinone bring a strong defensive rating of 1.578 — this is suppressing Genoa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Genoa games / 29 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 60% | Draw 22% | Frosinone 19%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Frosinone 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Genoa (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genoa are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 60% | Frosinone 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Mar 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 60% | Draw 22% | Frosinone 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 58% | xG Genoa 2.08 / Frosinone 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.965 / def 1.150 | Frosinone attack 0.768 / def 1.578 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Genoa (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Frosinone xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Frosinone kick off?
Genoa vs Frosinone kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Frosinone?
Genoa 1 - 1 Frosinone.
Where is Genoa vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Frosinone part of?
Genoa vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 60% chance of winning, Frosinone a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Genoa and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Frosinone?
Record (3 meetings): Genoa 1W | Draws 0 | Frosinone 2W.
What form are Genoa and Frosinone in?
Genoa (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Frosinone (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Genoa's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Frosinone's defensive record (1.58x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.08. The same calculation in reverse, Frosinone's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
60%
1.68
22%
4.65
19%
5.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Genoa xG
Total xG
3.16
1.09
Frosinone xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.65
22%
Draw
5.31
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
13%
7.96
Win to Nil
20%
4.98
2%
42.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Genoa and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Genoa and 1.09 for Frosinone, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Frosinone?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Genoa come into this having played 67 games, going 29W 21D 17L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Frosinone sit at 1.55 PPG from 67 outings (30W 14D 23L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Genoa on 1.61 PPG, Frosinone on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Genoa's home form reads 17W 11D 5L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Frosinone have taken 1.15 points per game from 33 outings (10W 8D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.55 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Frosinone's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genoa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Genoa are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.49 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Current Season
Frosinone
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 29W 21D 17L in their last 67 games (1.61 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 30W 14D 23L in their last 67 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Frosinone away?
Genoa's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.88 PPG; Frosinone away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Genoa or Frosinone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Frosinone in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Genoa and Frosinone runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Genoa's record when hosting Frosinone specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Genoa
1
Draws
2
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Frosinone?
From 4 meetings on record, Genoa have won 1, Frosinone have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2024, when Genoa 1-1 Frosinone.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Frosinone?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 42%, Frosinone 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Genoa) and 48% (Frosinone).
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Frosinone in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Frosinone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Genoa's recent matches and 58% of Frosinone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Genoa's recent games and 48% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Frosinone tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genoa and Frosinone share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa and Frosinone finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 2.08 xG and Frosinone 1.09 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Genoa fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against Frosinone attack 0.77 / defence 1.58, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 60% | Draw 22% | Frosinone 19%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 40%, Frosinone 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Frosinone's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genoa 1.61 PPG, Frosinone 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.