Hellas Verona 2-0 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hellas Verona at 47%, yet in-form Cagliari provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hellas Verona vs Cagliari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi plays host to Hellas Verona versus Cagliari in Serie A (matchday 17). Kick-off: Saturday 23 December 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
Hellas Verona (all games): 0W 4D 6L across their last 10 — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hellas Verona's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cagliari have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Cagliari away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Cagliari are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Hellas Verona edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 30 Apr 2022, ended Hellas Verona 2–1 Cagliari — a Hellas Verona win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Hellas Verona goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 55 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Cagliari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 55 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 54% versus Cagliari 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 42% | Cagliari 47%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Hellas Verona surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Cagliari have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.51 xG and Cagliari 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.895 / defence 1.241 | Cagliari attack 0.743 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.132. Cagliari's defence rating of 1.218 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Hellas Verona's projected output up. Cagliari's attack rating of 0.743 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.04. Hellas Verona's defence rating of 1.241 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cagliari's projected output up. Data: built from Hellas Verona's last 54 games and Cagliari's last 16.
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 47% | Draw 27% | Cagliari 26%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 2.11 | Draw 3.68 | Cagliari 3.92. Hellas Verona hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hellas Verona as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cagliari (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hellas Verona if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Hellas Verona 60% (last 10 home games) | Cagliari 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, matchday 17 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Saturday 23 December 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 47% | Draw 27% | Cagliari 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Hellas Verona 1.51 / Cagliari 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.895 / def 1.241 | Cagliari attack 0.743 / def 1.218 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Cagliari xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hellas Verona vs Cagliari FAQs
What time does Hellas Verona vs Cagliari kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Cagliari kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 23 December 2023 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Cagliari?
Hellas Verona 2 - 0 Cagliari.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Cagliari part of?
Hellas Verona vs Cagliari is a Serie A fixture (matchday 17) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 47% chance of winning, Cagliari a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Hellas Verona and Cagliari will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hellas Verona vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Hellas Verona's attack at 0.90x the league average against Cagliari's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cagliari's attack (0.74x) against Hellas Verona's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from Hellas Verona's last 54 games and Cagliari's last 16 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
47%
2.11
27%
3.68
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.55
1.04
Cagliari xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
17%
6.00
6%
17.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.3 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hellas Verona vs Cagliari Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.04 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hellas Verona's recent record stands at 10W 15D 30L from 55 games, a 0.82 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-L in the last five.
Cagliari, meanwhile, have gone 19W 20D 16L across 55 games — 1.40 PPG, with L-D-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cagliari by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hellas Verona heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Hellas Verona have managed 7W 6D 13L from their last 26 home games — 1.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cagliari's away record stands at 4W 11D 11L across their last 26 away games, a 0.88 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cagliari's recent record.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hellas Verona are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.25 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Blended
Cagliari
Blended
Hellas Verona (Home) vs Cagliari (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hellas Verona
Blended
Cagliari
Blended
❓ Hellas Verona vs Cagliari Form FAQs
What form are Hellas Verona and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 10W 15D 30L in their last 55 games (0.82 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 19W 20D 16L in their last 55 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Cagliari away?
Hellas Verona's home record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.04 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Hellas Verona or Cagliari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hellas Verona have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Cagliari in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 31 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cagliari won Cagliari 4-0 Hellas Verona on 31 Jan 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hellas Verona have gone 1W 2D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cagliari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Hellas Verona
3
Draws
3
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Hellas Verona vs Cagliari H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Cagliari?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Hellas Verona have won 2, Cagliari have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Cagliari last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 January 2026: Cagliari 4-0 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Cagliari?
Cagliari have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Cagliari see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 62%, Cagliari 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Hellas Verona) and 46% (Cagliari).
On the defensive side: Cagliari in 38%; Hellas Verona have failed to score in 27% of games; Cagliari in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hellas Verona vs Cagliari Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hellas Verona and Cagliari matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 42% of Cagliari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hellas Verona and Cagliari matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Hellas Verona's recent games and 46% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hellas Verona and Cagliari matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 58% of Cagliari's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hellas Verona cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cagliari.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hellas Verona beat Cagliari 2-0 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.51 xG and Cagliari 1.04 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Cagliari landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.90 / defence 1.24 against Cagliari attack 0.74 / defence 1.22, drawn from 54/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 47% | Draw 27% | Cagliari 26%, with Hellas Verona to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 42%, Cagliari 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Cagliari's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Cagliari arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.82. Form was overturned, with Hellas Verona winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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