Fiorentina 2-2 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fiorentina vs Udinese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Artemio Franchi plays host to Fiorentina versus Udinese in Serie A, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Sunday 14 January 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fiorentina have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Fiorentina have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Fiorentina are significantly better at Stadio Artemio Franchi than their overall form suggests.
Udinese (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Udinese have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Fiorentina's favour (1.60 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Fiorentina, 2 for Udinese and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2023, ended 2–0 with Fiorentina winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Fiorentina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Udinese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 49% versus Udinese 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 42% | Udinese 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.63 xG and Udinese 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.073 / defence 0.866 | Udinese attack 0.830 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.071. Data: 57 Fiorentina games / 57 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 57% | Draw 26% | Udinese 17%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 1.75 | Draw 3.85 | Udinese 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Fiorentina (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fiorentina at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Fiorentina 40% | Udinese 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Jan 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 57% | Draw 26% | Udinese 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 44% | xG Fiorentina 1.63 / Udinese 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.073 / def 0.866 | Udinese attack 0.830 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Udinese xG
44%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Udinese kick off?
Fiorentina vs Udinese kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 14 January 2024 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Udinese?
Fiorentina 2 - 2 Udinese.
Where is Fiorentina vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Udinese part of?
Fiorentina vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 57% chance of winning, Udinese a 17% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Fiorentina and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Udinese?
Record (5 meetings): Fiorentina 3W | Draws 0 | Udinese 2W.
What form are Fiorentina and Udinese in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Udinese (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Fiorentina's attack at 1.07x the league average against Udinese's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Udinese's attack (0.83x) against Fiorentina's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.8%), 2-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
57%
1.75
26%
3.81
17%
6.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.40
0.77
Udinese xG
1.75
57%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
6.01
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
26%
3.78
3%
30.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 11.4 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Fiorentina and 0.77 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Udinese?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fiorentina come into this having played 57 games, going 25W 14D 18L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Udinese sit at 1.11 PPG from 57 outings (13W 24D 20L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fiorentina carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Udinese — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Fiorentina's home form reads 15W 7D 6L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Udinese have taken 0.96 points per game from 28 outings (6W 9D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fiorentina are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.16 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Udinese in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 25W 14D 18L in their last 57 games (1.56 PPG), while Udinese have gone 13W 24D 20L in their last 57 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Udinese away?
Fiorentina's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.86 PPG; Udinese away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Udinese won 0-4 on 27 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fiorentina have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Udinese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Fiorentina
1
Draws
4
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Udinese?
From 10 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 5, Udinese have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2026, when Udinese 3-0 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Udinese?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Udinese see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 54%, Udinese 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Fiorentina) and 43% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Fiorentina keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Udinese in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Udinese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Fiorentina's recent matches and 46% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fiorentina vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Fiorentina's recent games and 43% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fiorentina and Udinese tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Udinese in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fiorentina and Udinese share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina and Udinese finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.63 xG and Udinese 0.77 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Udinese outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.07 / defence 0.87 against Udinese attack 0.83 / defence 1.12, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 57% | Draw 26% | Udinese 17%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 42%, Udinese 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Udinese's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fiorentina (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Udinese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.