Hellas Verona 2-1 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hellas Verona at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hellas Verona vs Empoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hellas Verona host Empoli at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi in Serie A, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 January 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hellas Verona stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hellas Verona at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Empoli have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hellas Verona 0.60 PPG, Empoli 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Hellas Verona have won 2, Empoli 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2023, ended 1–0 with Hellas Verona winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Hellas Verona in-play tendencies (57 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Empoli in-play tendencies (57 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 53% versus Empoli 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Hellas Verona 40% | Empoli 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.11 xG and Empoli 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.828 / defence 1.180 | Empoli attack 0.763 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.050. Data: 57 Hellas Verona games / 57 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 38% | Draw 33% | Empoli 29%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 2.63 | Draw 3.03 | Empoli 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hellas Verona are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hellas Verona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Hellas Verona 60% | Empoli 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jan 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 38% | Draw 33% | Empoli 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Hellas Verona 1.11 / Empoli 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.828 / def 1.180 | Empoli attack 0.763 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Empoli xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Empoli kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Empoli kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 13 January 2024 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Empoli?
Hellas Verona 2 - 1 Empoli.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Empoli part of?
Hellas Verona vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 38% chance of winning, Empoli a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Hellas Verona and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Empoli?
Record (5 meetings): Hellas Verona 2W | Draws 3 | Empoli 0W.
What form are Hellas Verona and Empoli in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Empoli (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hellas Verona's attack rating (0.83) and Empoli's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Hellas Verona's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
38%
2.63
33%
3.07
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.06
0.94
Empoli xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
15%
6.77
10%
10.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 12.1 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 0.94 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hellas Verona come into this having played 57 games, going 11W 15D 31L for 0.84 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 0.98 PPG from 57 outings (13W 17D 27L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hellas Verona on 0.84 PPG, Empoli on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Hellas Verona's home form reads 8W 6D 13L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 0.85 points per game from 27 outings (4W 11D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Hellas Verona are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 0.82 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Empoli in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 11W 15D 31L in their last 57 games (0.84 PPG), while Empoli have gone 13W 17D 27L in their last 57 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Empoli away?
Hellas Verona's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.11 PPG; Empoli away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Dec 2024, when Empoli won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hellas Verona's record when hosting Empoli specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Hellas Verona
3
Draws
1
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Empoli?
From 8 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 4, Empoli have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2025, when Empoli 1-2 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Empoli?
Hellas Verona have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 56%, Empoli 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Hellas Verona) and 33% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Hellas Verona have failed to score in 30% of games; Empoli in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Empoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 48% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hellas Verona vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Hellas Verona's recent games and 33% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hellas Verona and Empoli tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Empoli in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hellas Verona edge out Empoli 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hellas Verona beat Empoli 2-1 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.11 xG and Empoli 0.94 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Hellas Verona beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.83 / defence 1.18 against Empoli attack 0.76 / defence 1.00, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 38% | Draw 33% | Empoli 29%, with Hellas Verona to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 40%, Empoli 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (57 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Empoli's trading profile (57 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hellas Verona 0.84 PPG, Empoli 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hellas Verona win broke the near-deadlock. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.