Atalanta 0-0 Juventus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atalanta at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Atalanta face Juventus.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Juventus travel to Gewiss Stadium to take on Atalanta in Serie A (matchday 7). The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 October 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Atalanta have gone 6W 0D 4L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Atalanta at home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Juventus stand at 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Juventus's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Atalanta 1.80 PPG, Juventus 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Atalanta, 1 for Juventus and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 7 May 2023, ended Atalanta 0–2 Juventus — a Juventus win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Atalanta trading profile (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Juventus trading profile (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 54% versus Juventus 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 50% | Juventus 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 1.87 xG and Juventus 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.264 / defence 0.872 | Juventus attack 1.256 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.133. Atalanta carry an above-average attack rating of 1.264 — their 1.87 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Juventus have an above-average attack rating of 1.256, which lifts their away xG to 1.24. Data: built from Atalanta's last 44 games and Juventus's last 44.
Result probabilities: Atalanta 51% | Draw 25% | Juventus 24%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 1.95 | Draw 4.06 | Juventus 4.13. Atalanta hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.87 / 1.24) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Atalanta as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atalanta offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Atalanta's last 10 home games and Juventus's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Atalanta 50% (last 10 home games) | Juventus 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Juventus | Competition: Serie A, matchday 7 | Venue: Gewiss Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 October 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 51% | Draw 25% | Juventus 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Atalanta 1.87 / Juventus 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.264 / def 0.872 | Juventus attack 1.256 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Juventus xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Atalanta vs Juventus FAQs
What time does Atalanta vs Juventus kick off?
Atalanta vs Juventus kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 1 October 2023 at Gewiss Stadium.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Juventus?
Atalanta 0 - 0 Juventus.
Where is Atalanta vs Juventus being played?
The match is being played at Gewiss Stadium.
What competition is Atalanta vs Juventus part of?
Atalanta vs Juventus is a Serie A fixture (matchday 7) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Juventus?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 51% chance of winning, Juventus a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Juventus?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Atalanta and Juventus will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Atalanta vs Juventus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Atalanta's attack at 1.26x the league average against Juventus's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Juventus's attack versus Atalanta's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Atalanta's last 44 games and Juventus's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
51%
1.95
25%
4.06
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Atalanta xG
Total xG
3.12
1.24
Juventus xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
15%
6.51
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
4%
26.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.3 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Atalanta vs Juventus Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Juventus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Juventus expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Atalanta and 1.24 for Juventus, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Juventus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Atalanta's recent record stands at 23W 7D 14L from 44 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Juventus, meanwhile, have gone 26W 7D 11L across 44 games — 1.93 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atalanta on 1.73 PPG, Juventus on 1.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Atalanta have managed 12W 3D 6L from their last 21 home games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Juventus's away record stands at 11W 2D 8L across their last 21 away games, a 1.67 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Atalanta are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Juventus are on 1.55 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Juventus in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Early Season
Juventus
Early Season
Atalanta (Home) vs Juventus (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Atalanta
Early Season
Juventus
Early Season
❓ Atalanta vs Juventus Form FAQs
What form are Atalanta and Juventus in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 23W 7D 14L in their last 44 games (1.73 PPG), while Juventus have gone 26W 7D 11L in their last 44 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Juventus away?
Atalanta's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 1.86 PPG; Juventus away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Atalanta or Juventus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Juventus in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Juventus have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Mar 2025, when Atalanta won Juventus 0-4 Atalanta.
Atalanta's record when hosting Juventus specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Atalanta
6
Draws
3
Juventus
Recent Meetings
❓ Atalanta vs Juventus H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Juventus?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Atalanta have won 1, Juventus have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Juventus last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Juventus 2-0 Atalanta.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and Juventus?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Juventus see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 62%, Juventus 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Atalanta) and 29% (Juventus).
On the defensive side: Juventus in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Juventus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Atalanta vs Juventus Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Atalanta and Juventus matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Atalanta's recent matches and 29% of Juventus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Atalanta and Juventus matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Atalanta's recent games and 29% of Juventus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atalanta and Juventus matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Atalanta's recent matches and 57% of Juventus's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Atalanta's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 7, as Atalanta and Juventus drew 0-0 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.87 xG and Juventus 1.24 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Atalanta fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Juventus landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.26 / defence 0.87 against Juventus attack 1.26 / defence 1.01, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 51% | Draw 25% | Juventus 24%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 50%, Juventus 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Juventus's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atalanta 1.73 PPG, Juventus 1.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Atalanta (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Juventus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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