Lazio 2-2 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lazio at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lazio vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lazio and Empoli meet at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 January 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lazio's overall Serie A record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Lazio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lazio at Stadio Olimpico this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico.
Empoli (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Lazio's 1.90 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Empoli's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Lazio, 0 for Empoli and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Jan 2022, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Lazio — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Empoli — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lazio 56% versus Empoli 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lazio 70% | Empoli 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lazio 1.47 xG and Empoli 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lazio attack 1.048 / defence 0.944 | Empoli attack 0.872 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.108. Data: 54 Lazio games / 54 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lazio 49% | Draw 29% | Empoli 22%. Fair-value odds: Lazio 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Empoli 4.55. Lazio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lazio at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lazio if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Lazio 50% | Empoli 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lazio vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Jan 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lazio 49% | Draw 29% | Empoli 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Lazio 1.47 / Empoli 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Lazio attack 1.048 / def 0.944 | Empoli attack 0.872 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Lazio (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Lazio xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Empoli xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lazio vs Empoli kick off?
Lazio vs Empoli kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 8 January 2023 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in Lazio vs Empoli?
Lazio 2 - 2 Empoli.
Where is Lazio vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is Lazio vs Empoli part of?
Lazio vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lazio vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Lazio a 49% chance of winning, Empoli a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lazio vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Lazio and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Lazio vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Empoli?
Record (2 meetings): Lazio 1W | Draws 1 | Empoli 0W.
What form are Lazio and Empoli in?
Lazio (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Empoli (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Lazio's attack rating (1.05) and Empoli's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Empoli's attack (0.87x) against Lazio's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
49%
2.04
29%
3.48
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Lazio xG
Total xG
2.38
0.91
Empoli xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
20%
5.09
5%
19.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.4 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lazio vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Lazio and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Lazio and 0.91 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Lazio vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lazio come into this having played 54 games, going 27W 13D 14L for 1.74 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Lazio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 1.09 PPG from 54 outings (14W 17D 23L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lazio carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Empoli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Lazio's home form reads 15W 7D 5L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 1.15 points per game from 27 outings (7W 10D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lazio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lazio are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.17 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lazio
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lazio and Empoli in coming into this match?
Lazio have gone 27W 13D 14L in their last 54 games (1.74 PPG), while Empoli have gone 14W 17D 23L in their last 54 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lazio at home or Empoli away?
Lazio's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lazio at home: 1.93 PPG; Empoli away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Lazio or Empoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lazio have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Empoli in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Lazio have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lazio have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Empoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Lazio
2
Draws
0
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Empoli?
From 8 meetings on record, Lazio have won 6, Empoli have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lazio and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when Empoli 0-1 Lazio.
Who has won more matches between Lazio and Empoli?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lazio 59%, Empoli 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Lazio) and 33% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Lazio keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Empoli in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lazio home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lazio play Empoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Lazio's recent matches and 48% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lazio vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Lazio's recent games and 33% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lazio and Empoli tend to score early?
Lazio have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Empoli in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lazio and Empoli share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 17, as Lazio and Empoli drew 2-2 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lazio 1.47 xG and Empoli 0.91 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Empoli outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lazio attack 1.05 / defence 0.94 against Empoli attack 0.87 / defence 1.01, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lazio 49% | Draw 29% | Empoli 22%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lazio 70%, Empoli 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lazio's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Empoli's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lazio arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lazio (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Empoli (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.