Bologna 0-3 AC Milan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AC Milan (56%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Bologna face AC Milan.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Bologna welcome AC Milan to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Serie A (matchday 23). Kick-off is Tuesday 3 February 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Bologna have gone 1W 3D 6L — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Bologna have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Bologna are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, AC Milan stand at 6W 4D 0L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, AC Milan have gone 5W 5D 0L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. AC Milan's 2.20 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Bologna's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
Despite the home advantage, AC Milan have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 8 H2H matches against 1 for Bologna.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2025, ended Bologna 0–1 AC Milan — a AC Milan win.
AC Milan have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 8 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Patterns
Bologna in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
AC Milan in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 57% versus AC Milan 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 52% | AC Milan 55%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Bologna surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while AC Milan have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that AC Milan surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Bologna recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 0.82 xG and AC Milan 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.863 / defence 1.067 | AC Milan attack 1.298 / defence 0.760. League average goals — home 1.248 / away 1.158. AC Milan bring a tight defence (rating 0.760, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Bologna's projected output down. AC Milan have an above-average attack rating of 1.298, which lifts their away xG to 1.60. Data: built from Bologna's last 60 games and AC Milan's last 60.
Result probabilities: Bologna 19% | Draw 25% | AC Milan 56%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 5.25 | Draw 4.01 | AC Milan 1.79. The model has a clear lean to AC Milan (56%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AC Milan are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bologna 40% (last 10 home games) | AC Milan 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs AC Milan | Competition: Serie A, matchday 23 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Tuesday 3 February 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 19% | Draw 25% | AC Milan 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Bologna 0.82 / AC Milan 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.863 / def 1.067 | AC Milan attack 1.298 / def 0.760 | league avg home 1.248 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: AC Milan (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.60
AC Milan xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bologna vs AC Milan FAQs
What time does Bologna vs AC Milan kick off?
Bologna vs AC Milan kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 3 February 2026 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs AC Milan?
Bologna 0 - 3 AC Milan.
Where is Bologna vs AC Milan being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs AC Milan part of?
Bologna vs AC Milan is a Serie A fixture (matchday 23) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs AC Milan?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 19% chance of winning, AC Milan a 56% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AC Milan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs AC Milan?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Bologna and AC Milan will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Bologna vs AC Milan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bologna's attack at 0.86x the league average against AC Milan's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 0.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AC Milan's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bologna's last 60 games and AC Milan's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.7%), 0-2 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Milan Win
19%
5.25
25%
4.01
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
0 – 2
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.42
1.60
AC Milan xG
5.25
19%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
20%
4.98
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
4%
26.12
25%
4.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 14.2 | 11.4 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.6 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bologna vs AC Milan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs AC Milan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Bologna and AC Milan expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Bologna and 1.60 for AC Milan, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs AC Milan?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bologna's recent record stands at 24W 20D 16L from 60 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five.
AC Milan, meanwhile, have gone 31W 17D 12L across 60 games — 1.83 PPG, with D-D-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bologna on 1.53 PPG, AC Milan on 1.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bologna have managed 14W 9D 6L from their last 29 home games — 1.76 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AC Milan's away record stands at 15W 7D 7L across their last 29 away games, a 1.79 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Bologna are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; AC Milan are on 1.60 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: AC Milan in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
AC Milan
Blended
Bologna (Home) vs AC Milan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bologna
Blended
AC Milan
Blended
❓ Bologna vs AC Milan Form FAQs
What form are Bologna and AC Milan in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 24W 20D 16L in their last 60 games (1.53 PPG), while AC Milan have gone 31W 17D 12L in their last 60 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or AC Milan away?
AC Milan's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.76 PPG; AC Milan away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Bologna or AC Milan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, AC Milan in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 28 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Feb 2026, when AC Milan won Bologna 0-3 AC Milan.
Bologna's record when hosting AC Milan specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Bologna
3
Draws
5
AC Milan
Recent Meetings
❓ Bologna vs AC Milan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and AC Milan?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bologna have won 2, AC Milan have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and AC Milan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 October 2026: AC Milan 2-4 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and AC Milan?
AC Milan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bologna see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
AC Milan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 55%, AC Milan 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Bologna) and 59% (AC Milan).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; AC Milan in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / AC Milan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bologna vs AC Milan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bologna and AC Milan matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Bologna's games and 62% of AC Milan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bologna and AC Milan matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Bologna's recent games and 59% of AC Milan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and AC Milan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 55% of Bologna's recent matches and 62% of AC Milan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AC Milan run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Bologna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AC Milan beat Bologna 0-3 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 0.82 xG and AC Milan 1.60 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Bologna fell 0.8 short of their projected output. AC Milan outscored their 1.60 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.86 / defence 1.07 against AC Milan attack 1.30 / defence 0.76, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 19% | Draw 25% | AC Milan 56%, with AC Milan to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 52%, AC Milan 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
AC Milan's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.53 PPG, AC Milan 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AC Milan win broke the near-deadlock. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AC Milan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.66 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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