🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Juventus at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Parma vs Juventus encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Juventus travel to Stadio Ennio Tardini to take on Parma. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 February 2026, 19:45 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Parma stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Juventus — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Juventus, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Juventus have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Juventus are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Parma, 1 for Juventus and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2025, ended 0–2 with Juventus winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Parma in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Juventus in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 55% versus Juventus 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 47% | Juventus 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 0.67 xG and Juventus 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.667 / defence 0.953 | Juventus attack 0.978 / defence 0.810. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.148. Parma's attack strength of 0.667 is below the league average — the 0.67 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 Parma games / 60 Juventus games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Parma 23% | Draw 33% | Juventus 45%. Fair-value odds: Parma 4.35 | Draw 3.03 | Juventus 2.22. Juventus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Parma's lower xG of 0.67 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Juventus as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juventus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.74 combined xG gives a 25% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 32% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Parma 30% | Juventus 40% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights