Atalanta 0-1 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atalanta at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Atalanta face Bologna.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Atalanta host Bologna at New Balance Arena in Serie A (matchday 37). Kick-off is Sunday 17 May 2026 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Atalanta — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Atalanta's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Atalanta are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Bologna have recorded 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Bologna away from home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Atalanta at 1.30 PPG versus Bologna's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 8 H2H matches we hold have produced 4 wins for Atalanta, 3 for Bologna and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Jan 2026, ended Atalanta 2–0 Bologna — a Atalanta win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Atalanta in-play and half-time data (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Bologna in-play and half-time data (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 51% versus Bologna 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 47% | Bologna 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 1.27 xG and Bologna 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 0.999 / defence 0.789 | Bologna attack 1.213 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.221 / away 1.146. Bologna have an above-average attack rating of 1.213, which lifts their away xG to 1.10. Atalanta have a tight defence (rating 0.789), which is pulling Bologna's projected output down. Data: built from Atalanta's last 74 games and Bologna's last 74.
Result probabilities: Atalanta 40% | Draw 29% | Bologna 31%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 2.50 | Draw 3.50 | Bologna 3.18. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atalanta at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atalanta offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Atalanta 30% (last 10 home games) | Bologna 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, matchday 37 | Venue: New Balance Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 40% | Draw 29% | Bologna 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Atalanta 1.27 / Bologna 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 0.999 / def 0.789 | Bologna attack 1.213 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.221 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Bologna xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Atalanta vs Bologna FAQs
What time does Atalanta vs Bologna kick off?
Atalanta vs Bologna kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 17 May 2026 at New Balance Arena.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Bologna?
Atalanta 0 - 1 Bologna.
Where is Atalanta vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at New Balance Arena.
What competition is Atalanta vs Bologna part of?
Atalanta vs Bologna is a Serie A fixture (matchday 37) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 40% chance of winning, Bologna a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Atalanta and Bologna will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Atalanta vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Atalanta's attack rating (1.00) and Bologna's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Atalanta's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Atalanta's last 74 games and Bologna's last 74 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
40%
2.50
29%
3.50
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Atalanta xG
Total xG
2.37
1.10
Bologna xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
13%
7.48
9%
11.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.3 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.1 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Atalanta vs Bologna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Atalanta and 1.10 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 74 outings, Atalanta have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 37W 21D 16L record — L-D-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Bologna's form line: 31W 21D 22L from 74 games, 1.54 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atalanta on 1.78 PPG, Bologna on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Atalanta have posted 1.76 PPG from their last 37 home games (18W 11D 8L).
On the road, Bologna have gone 15W 11D 11L from their last 37 away games — 1.51 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Atalanta are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.38 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Current Season
Bologna
Current Season
Atalanta (Home) vs Bologna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Atalanta
Current Season
Bologna
Current Season
❓ Atalanta vs Bologna Form FAQs
What form are Atalanta and Bologna in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 37W 21D 16L in their last 74 games (1.78 PPG), while Bologna have gone 31W 21D 22L in their last 74 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Bologna away?
Atalanta's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 1.76 PPG; Bologna away: 1.51 PPG.
Have Atalanta or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Bologna in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 31 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Atalanta's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Atalanta
1
Draws
4
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Atalanta vs Bologna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Bologna?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Atalanta have won 5, Bologna have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Bologna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 August 2026: Atalanta 1-0 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and Bologna?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 71% of those situations.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 57%, Bologna 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Atalanta) and 57% (Bologna).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Atalanta vs Bologna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Atalanta and Bologna matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Atalanta's games and 57% of Bologna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Atalanta and Bologna matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Atalanta's recent games and 57% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atalanta and Bologna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Atalanta's recent matches and 68% of Bologna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bologna defy the odds to beat Atalanta 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Atalanta 0-1 at New Balance Arena, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.27 xG and Bologna 1.10 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Atalanta fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.00 / defence 0.79 against Bologna attack 1.21 / defence 1.04, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 40% | Draw 29% | Bologna 31%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Bologna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 47%, Bologna 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Bologna's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atalanta 1.78 PPG, Bologna 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bologna win broke the near-deadlock. Atalanta (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward. Bologna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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