Fiorentina 1-1 Atalanta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atalanta at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fiorentina vs Atalanta fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fiorentina host Atalanta at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Serie A, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 22 May 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Fiorentina — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D D L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fiorentina have posted 3W 6D 1L at Stadio Artemio Franchi — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
Across all Serie A games this season, Atalanta have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Atalanta's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Fiorentina at 1.70 PPG versus Atalanta's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Fiorentina have won 5, Atalanta 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2025, ended 0–2 with Atalanta winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Fiorentina trading profile (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Atalanta trading profile (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 56% versus Atalanta 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 56% | Atalanta 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 0.98 xG and Atalanta 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 0.815 / defence 0.782 | Atalanta attack 1.251 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.210 / away 1.162. Atalanta have an above-average attack strength of 1.251 — the away xG of 1.14 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Fiorentina's defence rating of 0.782 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 75 Fiorentina games / 75 Atalanta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 31% | Draw 30% | Atalanta 39%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Atalanta 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atalanta at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atalanta offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Fiorentina 40% | Atalanta 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Atalanta | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Friday 22 May 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 31% | Draw 30% | Atalanta 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Fiorentina 0.98 / Atalanta 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 0.815 / def 0.782 | Atalanta attack 1.251 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.210 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Atalanta xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Atalanta kick off?
Fiorentina vs Atalanta kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 22 May 2026 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
Fiorentina 1 - 1 Atalanta.
Where is Fiorentina vs Atalanta being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Atalanta part of?
Fiorentina vs Atalanta is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 31% chance of winning, Atalanta a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Fiorentina and Atalanta will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Atalanta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Atalanta?
Record (9 meetings): Fiorentina 5W | Draws 1 | Atalanta 3W.
What form are Fiorentina and Atalanta in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-L-D-W. Atalanta (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Fiorentina's attack rating (0.81) and Atalanta's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Atalanta's attack versus Fiorentina's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
31%
3.22
30%
3.37
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.11
1.14
Atalanta xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
10%
10.04
15%
6.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 13.7 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Atalanta expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.14 for Atalanta, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fiorentina come into this having played 75 games, going 28W 22D 25L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-W.
On the other side, Atalanta sit at 1.76 PPG from 75 outings (37W 21D 17L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fiorentina on 1.41 PPG, Atalanta on 1.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Fiorentina's home form reads 16W 12D 9L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Atalanta have taken 1.81 points per game from 37 outings (19W 10D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Fiorentina are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Atalanta are on 1.71 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Atalanta in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Current Season
Atalanta
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Atalanta in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 28W 22D 25L in their last 75 games (1.41 PPG), while Atalanta have gone 37W 21D 17L in their last 75 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Atalanta away?
Atalanta's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.62 PPG; Atalanta away: 1.81 PPG.
Have Fiorentina or Atalanta been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fiorentina have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Atalanta in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fiorentina and Atalanta runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fiorentina's record when hosting Atalanta specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Fiorentina
2
Draws
3
Atalanta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Atalanta?
From 10 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 5, Atalanta have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Atalanta last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2026, when Fiorentina 1-1 Atalanta.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Atalanta?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 57%, Atalanta 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Fiorentina) and 49% (Atalanta).
On the defensive side: Fiorentina keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Atalanta in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Atalanta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Atalanta?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Fiorentina's recent matches and 46% of Atalanta's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fiorentina vs Atalanta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Fiorentina's recent games and 49% of Atalanta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fiorentina and Atalanta tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Atalanta in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fiorentina and Atalanta share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina and Atalanta finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 0.98 xG and Atalanta 1.14 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 0.81 / defence 0.78 against Atalanta attack 1.25 / defence 0.99, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 31% | Draw 30% | Atalanta 39%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 56%, Atalanta 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Atalanta's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.41 PPG, Atalanta 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Atalanta (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.