Salernitana 2-2 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Hellas Verona at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Salernitana vs Hellas Verona encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hellas Verona make the trip to Stadio Arechi to face Salernitana in Serie A, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Wednesday 22 September 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Salernitana (all games): 0W 0D 4L across 4 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Salernitana have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hellas Verona have collected 0.75 PPG across 4 Serie A outings this season: 1W 0D 3L. Last five: L L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.25. Conceding 2.25 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Hellas Verona have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Hellas Verona are 0.75 PPG clear of Salernitana in recent Serie A fixtures (0.75 vs 0.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Salernitana half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 75%; they fail to score in 75% of games.
Hellas Verona half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 75%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salernitana 25% versus Hellas Verona 75%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Salernitana 75% | Hellas Verona 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salernitana 0.81 xG and Hellas Verona 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salernitana attack 0.622 / defence 1.312 | Hellas Verona attack 0.646 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.529. Salernitana's attack strength of 0.622 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Salernitana games / 4 Hellas Verona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salernitana 23% | Draw 29% | Hellas Verona 48%. Fair-value odds: Salernitana 4.35 | Draw 3.45 | Hellas Verona 2.08. Hellas Verona hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hellas Verona as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hellas Verona if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.6 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Salernitana 25% | Hellas Verona 75%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salernitana vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Arechi • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Sep 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salernitana 23% | Draw 29% | Hellas Verona 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 40% | xG Salernitana 0.81 / Hellas Verona 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Salernitana attack 0.622 / def 1.312 | Hellas Verona attack 0.646 / def 1.080 | league avg home 1.207 / away 1.529 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Salernitana xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Hellas Verona xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salernitana vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Salernitana vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 22 September 2021 at Stadio Arechi.
What was the final score in Salernitana vs Hellas Verona?
Salernitana 2 - 2 Hellas Verona.
Where is Salernitana vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Arechi.
What competition is Salernitana vs Hellas Verona part of?
Salernitana vs Hellas Verona is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Salernitana vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Salernitana a 23% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 48% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salernitana vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Salernitana and Hellas Verona will score (BTTS).
Will Salernitana vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Hellas Verona?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Salernitana and Hellas Verona in?
Salernitana (all comps): 0W-0D-4L in 4 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-L-L. Hellas Verona (all comps): 1W-0D-3L in 4 | 0.75 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.25 | L5 L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Salernitana's attacking strength (0.62x league average) is weighed against Hellas Verona's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.81. Flip it around — Hellas Verona's attack (0.65x) against Salernitana's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (14.1%), 0-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
23%
4.28
29%
3.48
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Salernitana xG
Total xG
2.10
1.29
Hellas Verona xG
4.28
23%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
44%
2.25
Win to Nil
6%
15.64
21%
4.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 15.8 | 10.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.8 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salernitana vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Salernitana and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Salernitana and 1.29 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Salernitana vs Hellas Verona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Salernitana's recent record stands at 0W 0D 4L from 4 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Salernitana, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hellas Verona, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 3L across 4 games — 0.75 PPG, with L-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Hellas Verona, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hellas Verona by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Salernitana heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Salernitana are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 1.50 scored and 2.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Salernitana have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Hellas Verona in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salernitana
Early Season
Hellas Verona
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salernitana and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Salernitana have gone 0W 0D 4L in their last 4 games (0.00 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 1W 0D 3L in their last 4 (0.75 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Salernitana have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Hellas Verona — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Salernitana
1
Draws
2
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Hellas Verona?
From 6 meetings on record, Salernitana have won 3, Hellas Verona have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Salernitana and Hellas Verona last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2024, when Salernitana 1-2 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Salernitana and Hellas Verona?
Salernitana have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Salernitana tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salernitana 25%, Hellas Verona 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Salernitana and 75% for Hellas Verona. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Salernitana have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salernitana home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salernitana play Hellas Verona?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Salernitana's recent matches and 75% of Hellas Verona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Salernitana vs Hellas Verona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Salernitana's matches and 75% of Hellas Verona's.
Do Salernitana and Hellas Verona tend to score early?
Salernitana have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Hellas Verona in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Salernitana and Hellas Verona share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Arechi, Regular Season - 5, as Salernitana and Hellas Verona drew 2-2 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salernitana 0.81 xG and Hellas Verona 1.29 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Salernitana beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salernitana attack 0.62 / defence 1.31 against Hellas Verona attack 0.65 / defence 1.08, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salernitana 23% | Draw 29% | Hellas Verona 48%, with Hellas Verona to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salernitana 75%, Hellas Verona 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salernitana's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hellas Verona arrived the stronger side — 0.75 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Salernitana scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.