Bologna 2-2 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bologna at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bologna vs Genoa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bologna host Genoa at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Serie A, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 21 September 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Bologna have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 outings — a 1.75 PPG return. Last five: W D W L. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Genoa — All Games: 1W 0D 3L from 4 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.75 PPG. Last five: L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Genoa have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Bologna have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.75 vs 0.75) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Bologna in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Genoa in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bologna 50% and Genoa 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bologna 50% | Genoa 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.71 xG and Genoa 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.033 / defence 1.073 | Genoa attack 0.877 / defence 1.374. League average goals — home 1.206 / away 1.497. Genoa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.374 — this is suppressing Bologna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Bologna games / 4 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 45% | Draw 23% | Genoa 32%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.22 | Draw 4.35 | Genoa 3.12. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 50% | Genoa 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Sep 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 45% | Draw 23% | Genoa 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Bologna 1.71 / Genoa 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 1.033 / def 1.073 | Genoa attack 0.877 / def 1.374 | league avg home 1.206 / away 1.497 • Poisson stance: Bologna (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Genoa xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Genoa kick off?
Bologna vs Genoa kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 21 September 2021 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Genoa?
Bologna 2 - 2 Genoa.
Where is Bologna vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Genoa part of?
Bologna vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 45% chance of winning, Genoa a 32% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Bologna and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Genoa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bologna and Genoa in?
Bologna (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-W-L. Genoa (all comps): 1W-0D-3L in 4 | 0.75 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bologna's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Genoa's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
45%
2.23
23%
4.26
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Bologna xG
Total xG
3.12
1.41
Genoa xG
2.23
45%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
18%
5.53
Win to Nil
11%
9.14
6%
17.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.6 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Bologna and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Bologna and 1.41 for Genoa, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bologna's recent record stands at 2W 1D 1L from 4 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with W-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Genoa, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 3L across 4 games — 0.75 PPG, with L-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Genoa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bologna by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Genoa heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Bologna are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.25 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genoa in 75%.
Defensively: Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Early Season
Genoa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Genoa in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 games (1.75 PPG), while Genoa have gone 1W 0D 3L in their last 4 (0.75 PPG).
Have Bologna or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Genoa in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bologna's record when hosting Genoa specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Bologna
3
Draws
3
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Genoa?
From 8 meetings on record, Bologna have won 2, Genoa have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Genoa 3-2 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Genoa?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bologna tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 50%, Genoa 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Bologna and 100% for Genoa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Genoa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Bologna's games and 75% of Genoa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bologna vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Bologna's matches and 100% of Genoa's.
Do Bologna and Genoa tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Genoa in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bologna and Genoa share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 5, as Bologna and Genoa drew 2-2 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.71 xG and Genoa 1.41 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.03 / defence 1.07 against Genoa attack 0.88 / defence 1.37, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 45% | Draw 23% | Genoa 32%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 50%, Genoa 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Genoa's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.