Cagliari vs Lazio – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Lazio at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cagliari vs Lazio encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cagliari host Lazio at Unipol Domus in Serie A, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 February 2027 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Cagliari — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Cagliari have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cagliari at Unipol Domus this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Lazio have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Lazio have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lazio's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cagliari 1.60 PPG, Lazio 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Cagliari's 30% rate and Lazio's 20% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The previous 8 encounters between these sides heavily favour Lazio, who boast 6 victories compared to 0 for Cagliari.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Lazio have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Cagliari trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Lazio trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 15% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 15% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 48% versus Lazio 28%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cagliari 48% | Lazio 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 0.84 xG and Lazio 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.883 / defence 0.939 | Lazio attack 0.910 / defence 0.818. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.233. Data: 40 Cagliari games / 40 Lazio games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cagliari 29% | Draw 32% | Lazio 40%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 3.45 | Draw 3.12 | Lazio 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lazio at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lazio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.90 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 30% | Lazio 20% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Feb 2027, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 29% | Draw 32% | Lazio 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG Cagliari 0.84 / Lazio 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.883 / def 0.939 | Lazio attack 0.910 / def 0.818 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Lazio (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Lazio xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Lazio kick off?
Cagliari vs Lazio is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 14 February 2027 at Unipol Domus.
Where is Cagliari vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Lazio part of?
Cagliari vs Lazio is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 29% chance of winning, Lazio a 40% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Cagliari and Lazio will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Lazio?
Record (8 meetings): Cagliari 0W | Draws 2 | Lazio 6W.
What form are Cagliari and Lazio in?
Cagliari (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Lazio (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cagliari's attack at 0.88x the league average against Lazio's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lazio's attack versus Cagliari's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
29%
3.50
32%
3.16
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Cagliari xG
Total xG
1.90
1.05
Lazio xG
3.50
29%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
10%
10.03
17%
5.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 15.8 | 8.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.05 for Lazio, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cagliari come into this having played 40 games, going 12W 10D 18L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Cagliari, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Lazio sit at 1.50 PPG from 40 outings (16W 12D 12L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Lazio, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cagliari on 1.15 PPG, Lazio on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cagliari's home form reads 7W 4D 9L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Lazio have taken 1.35 points per game from 20 outings (7W 6D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Cagliari are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 1.08 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lazio in 28%.
Defensively: Lazio in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Early Season
Lazio
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Lazio in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 12W 10D 18L in their last 40 games (1.15 PPG), while Lazio have gone 16W 12D 12L in their last 40 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Lazio away?
Lazio's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.25 PPG; Lazio away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Cagliari or Lazio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cagliari have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Lazio in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cagliari and Lazio runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Mar 2022, when Lazio won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cagliari's record when hosting Lazio specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Cagliari
2
Draws
6
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Lazio?
From 8 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 0, Lazio have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Lazio last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Cagliari 0-0 Lazio.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Lazio?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cagliari see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Lazio see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Cagliari 35% BTTS, Lazio 15%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 35% for Cagliari and 15% for Lazio.
On the defensive side: Lazio in 50%; Cagliari have failed to score in 40% of games; Lazio in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Lazio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Cagliari's recent matches and 15% of Lazio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cagliari vs Lazio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Cagliari's recent games and 15% of Lazio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.