Hellas Verona 1-3 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hellas Verona vs AS Roma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 12 as Hellas Verona welcome AS Roma to Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi. Kick-off is set for Monday 31 October 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Hellas Verona have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hellas Verona's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 games at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AS Roma stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. AS Roma's 1.90 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Hellas Verona's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Hellas Verona, 0 for AS Roma and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hellas Verona trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
AS Roma trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hellas Verona 76% and AS Roma 47% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 63% | AS Roma 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.20 xG and AS Roma 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.986 / defence 1.260 | AS Roma attack 1.056 / defence 0.886. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.167. Data: 49 Hellas Verona games / 49 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 28% | Draw 27% | AS Roma 44%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | AS Roma 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hellas Verona 70% | AS Roma 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Monday 31 Oct 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 28% | Draw 27% | AS Roma 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Hellas Verona 1.20 / AS Roma 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.986 / def 1.260 | AS Roma attack 1.056 / def 0.886 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.55
AS Roma xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs AS Roma kick off?
Hellas Verona vs AS Roma kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 31 October 2022 at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs AS Roma?
Hellas Verona 1 - 3 AS Roma.
Where is Hellas Verona vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs AS Roma part of?
Hellas Verona vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 28% chance of winning, AS Roma a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Hellas Verona and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and AS Roma?
Record (2 meetings): Hellas Verona 1W | Draws 1 | AS Roma 0W.
What form are Hellas Verona and AS Roma in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. AS Roma (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hellas Verona's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Hellas Verona's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
28%
3.53
27%
3.67
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.75
1.55
AS Roma xG
3.53
28%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
21%
4.73
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
6%
16.69
13%
7.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.9 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.9 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.55 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hellas Verona's recent record stands at 15W 13D 21L from 49 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Roma, meanwhile, have gone 25W 10D 14L across 49 games — 1.73 PPG, with L-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours AS Roma by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hellas Verona heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hellas Verona have managed 10W 3D 11L from 24 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AS Roma's away record stands at 11W 4D 9L across 24 trips, a 1.54 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Hellas Verona are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.47 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hellas Verona have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games.
Defensively: AS Roma in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 15W 13D 21L in their last 49 games (1.18 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 25W 10D 14L in their last 49 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or AS Roma away?
AS Roma's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.38 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Hellas Verona or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hellas Verona have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, AS Roma in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hellas Verona and AS Roma runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: AS Roma have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Hellas Verona's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Hellas Verona
1
Draws
6
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and AS Roma?
From 10 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 3, AS Roma have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Hellas Verona 0-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hellas Verona at 75%, AS Roma at 58%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Hellas Verona and 54% for AS Roma. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play AS Roma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Hellas Verona's games and 58% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hellas Verona vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Hellas Verona's matches and 54% of AS Roma's.
Do Hellas Verona and AS Roma tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AS Roma cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Hellas Verona.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Hellas Verona 1-3 at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.20 xG and AS Roma 1.55 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. AS Roma outscored their 1.55 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.99 / defence 1.26 against AS Roma attack 1.06 / defence 0.89, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 28% | Draw 27% | AS Roma 44%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 63%, AS Roma 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
AS Roma's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.18. Form held, and they took the win. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.