AC Milan 0-1 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AC Milan at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AC Milan vs Parma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Parma make the trip to Stadio Giuseppe Meazza to face AC Milan in Serie A (matchday 26). The match kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
AC Milan have collected 2.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
AC Milan's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Parma (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Parma have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
The form ledger tips toward AC Milan. A 0.70 PPG lead over Parma (2.20 vs 1.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for AC Milan, 1 for Parma and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2025, ended AC Milan 2–2 Parma — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
AC Milan — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Parma — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AC Milan 57% versus Parma 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AC Milan 56% | Parma 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: AC Milan surrender their half-time lead 32% of the time, while Parma have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Parma surrender HT leads in 42% of cases while AC Milan recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 54% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Milan 1.32 xG and Parma 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Milan attack 1.107 / defence 0.810 | Parma attack 0.784 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.232 / away 1.218. Parma's attack rating of 0.784 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.77. Data: built from AC Milan's last 63 games and Parma's last 63.
Result probabilities: AC Milan 49% | Draw 29% | Parma 21%. Fair-value odds: AC Milan 2.03 | Draw 3.40 | Parma 4.67. AC Milan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AC Milan as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AC Milan if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (AC Milan's last 10 home games and Parma's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 60%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: AC Milan 60% (last 10 home games) | Parma 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Milan vs Parma | Competition: Serie A, matchday 26 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza • Kick-off: Sunday 22 February 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Milan 49% | Draw 29% | Parma 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG AC Milan 1.32 / Parma 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: AC Milan attack 1.107 / def 0.810 | Parma attack 0.784 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.232 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: AC Milan (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
AC Milan xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Parma xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AC Milan vs Parma FAQs
What time does AC Milan vs Parma kick off?
AC Milan vs Parma kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What was the final score in AC Milan vs Parma?
AC Milan 0 - 1 Parma.
Where is AC Milan vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What competition is AC Milan vs Parma part of?
AC Milan vs Parma is a Serie A fixture (matchday 26) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AC Milan vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives AC Milan a 49% chance of winning, Parma a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AC Milan the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Milan vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both AC Milan and Parma will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will AC Milan vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from AC Milan's attack rating (1.11) and Parma's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Parma's attack (0.78x) against AC Milan's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from AC Milan's last 63 games and Parma's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.2%), 0-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Milan Win
49%
2.03
29%
3.40
21%
4.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
AC Milan xG
Total xG
2.09
0.77
Parma xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
4.67
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
23%
4.40
6%
17.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 12.6 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.3 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AC Milan vs Parma Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Milan vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are AC Milan and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for AC Milan and 0.77 for Parma, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Milan vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 63 outings, AC Milan have picked up 1.86 PPG on a 33W 18D 12L record — W-D-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Parma's form line: 14W 23D 26L from 63 games, 1.03 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-W.
Put side by side, AC Milan are the form team by 0.83 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Parma.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, AC Milan have posted 1.90 PPG from their last 31 home games (16W 11D 4L).
On the road, Parma have gone 6W 13D 12L from their last 31 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AC Milan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AC Milan are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 0.98 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: AC Milan have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Milan
Blended
Parma
Blended
AC Milan (Home) vs Parma (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AC Milan
Blended
Parma
Blended
❓ AC Milan vs Parma Form FAQs
What form are AC Milan and Parma in coming into this match?
AC Milan have gone 33W 18D 12L in their last 63 games (1.86 PPG), while Parma have gone 14W 23D 26L in their last 63 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AC Milan at home or Parma away?
AC Milan's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AC Milan at home: 1.90 PPG; Parma away: 1.00 PPG.
Have AC Milan or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
AC Milan have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Parma in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between AC Milan and Parma, the earliest from August 2024. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 22 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AC Milan have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Parma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
AC Milan
1
Draws
2
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ AC Milan vs Parma H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AC Milan and Parma?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, AC Milan have won 1, Parma have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did AC Milan and Parma last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2026: AC Milan 0-1 Parma.
Who has won more matches between AC Milan and Parma?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AC Milan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 71% of those situations.
Parma see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AC Milan 52%, Parma 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (AC Milan) and 48% (Parma).
On the defensive side: AC Milan keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Parma in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Milan home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AC Milan vs Parma Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AC Milan and Parma matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of AC Milan's recent matches and 52% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AC Milan and Parma matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of AC Milan's recent games and 48% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AC Milan and Parma matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of AC Milan's recent matches and 58% of Parma's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Parma defy the odds to beat AC Milan 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat AC Milan 0-1 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Milan 1.32 xG and Parma 0.77 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AC Milan fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Milan attack 1.11 / defence 0.81 against Parma attack 0.78 / defence 0.97, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AC Milan 49% | Draw 29% | Parma 21%, with AC Milan to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Parma win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Milan 56%, Parma 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AC Milan's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Parma's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, AC Milan arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.03. Form was overturned, with Parma winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AC Milan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward. Parma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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