Waterford 1-0 Shelbourne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shelbourne at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Waterford vs Shelbourne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 26 as Waterford welcome Shelbourne to Regional Sports Centre. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 August 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Waterford — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Waterford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waterford's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Regional Sports Centre this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Regional Sports Centre this season.
Across all Premier Division games this season, Shelbourne have recorded 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shelbourne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shelbourne's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Waterford at 1.60 PPG versus Shelbourne's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Waterford register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Shelbourne in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Shelbourne have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 9 encounters against Waterford's 1 victories.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2026, ended 1–2 with Shelbourne winning.
It is worth noting that Shelbourne have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Waterford in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Shelbourne in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waterford 60% and Shelbourne 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waterford 55% | Shelbourne 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 1.38 xG and Shelbourne 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 1.016 / defence 1.062 | Shelbourne attack 1.124 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.264. Data: 61 Waterford games / 60 Shelbourne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waterford 31% | Draw 31% | Shelbourne 37%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Shelbourne 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shelbourne at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shelbourne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Waterford 60% | Shelbourne 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs Shelbourne | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 31% | Draw 31% | Shelbourne 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 61% | xG Waterford 1.38 / Shelbourne 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 1.016 / def 1.062 | Shelbourne attack 1.124 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Shelbourne xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waterford vs Shelbourne kick off?
Waterford vs Shelbourne kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 2 August 2026 at Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs Shelbourne?
Waterford 1 - 0 Shelbourne.
Where is Waterford vs Shelbourne being played?
The match is being played at Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs Shelbourne part of?
Waterford vs Shelbourne is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 31% chance of winning, Shelbourne a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs Shelbourne?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Waterford and Shelbourne will score (BTTS).
Will Waterford vs Shelbourne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Shelbourne?
Record (9 meetings): Waterford 1W | Draws 2 | Shelbourne 6W.
What form are Waterford and Shelbourne in?
Waterford (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Shelbourne (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Waterford's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Shelbourne's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Shelbourne's attack versus Waterford's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
31%
3.18
31%
3.21
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Waterford xG
Total xG
2.88
1.51
Shelbourne xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
22%
4.52
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
7%
14.39
9%
10.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.6 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs Shelbourne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Waterford and Shelbourne expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Waterford and 1.51 for Shelbourne, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs Shelbourne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Waterford come into this having played 60 games, going 15W 16D 29L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-D. The sample for Waterford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shelbourne sit at 1.55 PPG from 60 outings (23W 24D 13L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Shelbourne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shelbourne carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Waterford — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Waterford's home form reads 8W 10D 11L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Shelbourne have taken 1.69 points per game from 29 outings (12W 13D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shelbourne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Waterford are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Shelbourne are on 1.38 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waterford have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Shelbourne in 67%.
Last 60 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Blended
Shelbourne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waterford and Shelbourne in coming into this match?
Waterford have gone 15W 16D 29L in their last 60 games (1.02 PPG), while Shelbourne have gone 23W 24D 13L in their last 60 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waterford at home or Shelbourne away?
Shelbourne's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waterford at home: 1.17 PPG; Shelbourne away: 1.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Waterford and Shelbourne runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Waterford's record when hosting Shelbourne specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Waterford
2
Draws
6
Shelbourne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Shelbourne?
From 10 meetings on record, Waterford have won 2, Shelbourne have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and Shelbourne last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Waterford 1-0 Shelbourne.
Who has won more matches between Waterford and Shelbourne?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Shelbourne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waterford 62%, Shelbourne 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Waterford) and 48% (Shelbourne).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / Shelbourne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waterford play Shelbourne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Waterford's games and 66% of Shelbourne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waterford vs Shelbourne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Waterford's recent games and 48% of Shelbourne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Waterford and Shelbourne tend to score early?
Waterford have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Shelbourne in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Waterford defy the odds to beat Shelbourne 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waterford beat Shelbourne 1-0 at Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 1.38 xG and Shelbourne 1.51 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Shelbourne landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 1.02 / defence 1.06 against Shelbourne attack 1.12 / defence 0.93, drawn from 61/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 31% | Draw 31% | Shelbourne 37%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Waterford win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 55%, Shelbourne 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waterford's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Shelbourne's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Shelbourne arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with Waterford winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Waterford (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Shelbourne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.