Poisson model rates Dundalk at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shelbourne vs Dundalk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dundalk make the trip to Tolka Park to face Shelbourne in Premier Division, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Friday 3 July 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Shelbourne (all games): 3W 6D 1L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shelbourne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shelbourne at Tolka Park this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Tolka Park this season.
Dundalk have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dundalk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dundalk away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Shelbourne against 1.40 for Dundalk. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Shelbourne register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Dundalk in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Shelbourne have had the better of this match-up — 6 wins from 8 meetings, with Dundalk managing just 1 victories and 1 draws shared.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2026, ended 2–1 with Shelbourne winning.
The historical record gives Shelbourne a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Stats
Across 23 matches this season, Shelbourne have gone 7W 10D 6L. Their scoring output is 1.4 per match with 1.5 conceded on average. Biggest win: 2-1 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-3 (H) / 3-2 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 4 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 4 games this season. 5 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 3 away). Scored 2+ goals in 1 of 23 games (4%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 0 missed from 3 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 3.1 yellow cards per game.
Dundalk have played 22 games this season, recording 9W 8D 5L. Their scoring output is 1.6 per match with 1.5 conceded on average. Biggest win: 5-0 (H) / 2-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-3 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 2 games this season. 5 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 3 of 22 games (14%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards per game, 0.27 reds per game.
Penalty activity: Shelbourne 3/3 vs Dundalk 2/2 this season.
Trading & In-Play
Shelbourne — key trading statistics (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Dundalk — key trading statistics (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shelbourne 73% and Dundalk 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shelbourne 68% | Dundalk 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.44 xG and Dundalk 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.896 / defence 1.181 | Dundalk attack 0.988 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.287. Data: 59 Shelbourne games / 22 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 35% | Draw 27% | Dundalk 38%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Dundalk 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.44 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dundalk are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dundalk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Shelbourne 70% | Dundalk 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Friday 3 Jul 2026, 19:00 UTC • Managers: Shelbourne (D. Duff) | Dundalk (S. O'Donnell) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (8 meetings): Shelbourne 6W | Draws 1 | Dundalk 1W • Goals trend: 2.12 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Shelbourne 11 – 6 Dundalk • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Shelbourne 75% / Draw 12% / Dundalk 12% • Historical edge: Shelbourne dominant — 6W from 8 meetings (75% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Shelbourne (historical win rate 75%) but Poisson model rates Dundalk as more likely (home 35% / draw 27% / away 38%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals: H2H average 2.12/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.95 (56% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 61% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Shelbourne (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-D • Dundalk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-L • Shelbourne home split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | CS 2 • Dundalk away split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | CS 1 • Form edge: minimal separation (Shelbourne 1.50 PPG vs Dundalk 1.40 PPG) • xG vs form (Shelbourne): Poisson xG of 1.44 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.30 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Dundalk): Poisson xG of 1.50 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.40 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.2 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.95 (56% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Shelbourne 7/10, Dundalk 7/10; Poisson BTTS probability 61% — all signals aligned
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 35% | Draw 27% | Dundalk 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG Shelbourne 1.44 / Dundalk 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 0.896 / def 1.181 | Dundalk attack 0.988 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Dundalk xG
61%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score probability matrix is a Premium feature
Upgrade to see the exact probability of every scoreline from 0-0 to 6-6, not just the headline 1X2 split.
Upgrade to Premium⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shelbourne vs Dundalk kick off?
Shelbourne vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 3 July 2026 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs Dundalk?
Shelbourne 2 - 1 Dundalk.
Where is Shelbourne vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs Dundalk part of?
Shelbourne vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 35% chance of winning, Dundalk a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Shelbourne and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Shelbourne vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Dundalk?
• Record (8 meetings): Shelbourne 6W | Draws 1 | Dundalk 1W • Goals trend: 2.12 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Shelbourne 11 – 6 Dundalk • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Shelbourne 75% / Draw 12% / Dundalk 12% • Historical edge: Shelbourne dominant — 6W from 8 meetings (75% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Shelbourne (historical win rate 75%) but Poisson model rates Dundalk as more likely (home 35% / draw 27% / away 38%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals: H2H average 2.12/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.95 (56% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 61% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Shelbourne and Dundalk in?
• Shelbourne (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-D • Dundalk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-L • Shelbourne home split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | CS 2 • Dundalk away split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | CS 1 • Form edge: minimal separation (Shelbourne 1.50 PPG vs Dundalk 1.40 PPG) • xG vs form (Shelbourne): Poisson xG of 1.44 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.30 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Dundalk): Poisson xG of 1.50 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.40 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.2 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.95 (56% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Shelbourne 7/10, Dundalk 7/10; Poisson BTTS probability 61% — all signals aligned
What do the betting odds say about Shelbourne vs Dundalk?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture