Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Derry City travel to Richmond Park to take on St Patrick's Athl.. The game is scheduled for Friday 31 July 2026, 18:45 UTC.
Form Guide
St Patrick's Athl. — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for St Patrick's Athl., so this record blends games from this season and last.
St Patrick's Athl. at Richmond Park this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — St Patrick's Athl. are significantly better at Richmond Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Derry City stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Derry City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Derry City have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
St Patrick's Athl. are in the better shape of the two on current Premier Division data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Derry City, who boast 5 victories compared to 2 for St Patrick's Athl..
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 10 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Derry City have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Key Season Stats
On the season-wide numbers, St Patrick's Athl. show 12W 6D 6L from 24 outings in Premier Division. Their scoring output is 1.6 per match with 0.8 conceded on average. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 1-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-1 (H) / 2-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 9 games this season. 9 clean sheets this season (6 at home, 3 away). Scored 2+ goals in 8 of 24 games (33%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 0 missed from 3 awarded. Most used formation: 4-4-2. Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards per game.
Derry City's cumulative Premier Division record this campaign: 6W 11D 8L from 25 matches. They average 1.3 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Biggest win: 4-1 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-4 (H) / 2-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 7 games this season. 6 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 25 games (8%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 1 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.8 yellow cards per game, 0.08 reds per game.
St Patrick's Athl. have the superior defensive numbers, conceding 0.80 per game against Derry City's 1.20. St Patrick's Athl. lead on clean sheets this season (9 vs 6). Derry City are averaging significantly more yellow cards per game this season — a risk factor worth noting for card markets. St Patrick's Athl. score 2+ goals far more often (33% vs 8%) — a meaningful difference for goal-line markets. Penalty activity: St Patrick's Athl. 3/3 vs Derry City 3/4 this season.
Standings Snapshot
St Patrick's Athl. hold the table advantage, sitting 3rd with 42 points — 3 positions and 13 points clear of Derry City in 6th.
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record this season stands at 9W 1D 2L. On the road, Derry City's record stands at 1W 6D 5L this term. St Patrick's Athl.: Promotion - Conference League (Qualification).
In-Play Data
St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Derry City trading profile (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 35% versus Derry City 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 38% | Derry City 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.72 xG and Derry City 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.240 / defence 0.604 | Derry City attack 0.827 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.306. St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating of 0.604 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 St Patrick's Athl. games / 61 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 62% | Draw 26% | Derry City 13%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 1.61 | Draw 3.85 | Derry City 7.69. The model has a clear lean to St Patrick's Athl. (62%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Derry City lead the H2H ledger, but St Patrick's Athl. carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: St Patrick's Athl. 40% | Derry City 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 31 Jul 2026, 18:45 UTC • Managers: St Patrick's Athl. (S. Kenny) | Derry City (T. Lynch) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (10 meetings): St Patrick's Athl. 2W | Draws 3 | Derry City 5W • Goals trend: 1.70 goals/game | Total H2H goals: St Patrick's Athl. 6 – 11 Derry City • H2H markets: BTTS 20% | Over 2.5 30% | Win rates: St Patrick's Athl. 20% / Draw 30% / Derry City 50% • Historical edge: Derry City dominant — 5W from 10 meetings (50% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Derry City (historical win rate 50%) but Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. as more likely (home 62% / draw 26% / away 13%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals: H2H average 1.70/game (30% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.37 (42% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS corroboration (No): H2H BTTS rate only 20%, Poisson BTTS probability 41% — clean-sheet tendency backed by both data sources
📈 Recent Form
• St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-D • Derry City (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-L • St Patrick's Athl. home split: 2.20 PPG from 10 | GF 2.20 / GA 0.60 | CS 4 • Derry City away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | CS 1 • Form edge: St Patrick's Athl. lead by 0.50 PPG (1.50 vs 1.00) • xG vs form (St Patrick's Athl.): Poisson projects 1.72 xG vs form scoring rate of 2.20 — model is more cautious than form; the opposition's defensive strength is tempering the scoring expectation • xG vs form (Derry City): Poisson projects 0.65 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.10 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Goals margin: form ~2.1 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.37 (42% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~60% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 41% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on St Patrick's Athl. — St Patrick's Athl. at 62% Poisson win probability
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 62% | Draw 26% | Derry City 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 41% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.72 / Derry City 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.240 / def 0.604 | Derry City attack 0.827 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (62%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Derry City xG
41%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City is scheduled to kick off at 18:45 on Friday 31 July 2026 at Richmond Park.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 62% chance of winning, Derry City a 13% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City?
• Record (10 meetings): St Patrick's Athl. 2W | Draws 3 | Derry City 5W • Goals trend: 1.70 goals/game | Total H2H goals: St Patrick's Athl. 6 – 11 Derry City • H2H markets: BTTS 20% | Over 2.5 30% | Win rates: St Patrick's Athl. 20% / Draw 30% / Derry City 50% • Historical edge: Derry City dominant — 5W from 10 meetings (50% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Derry City (historical win rate 50%) but Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. as more likely (home 62% / draw 26% / away 13%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals: H2H average 1.70/game (30% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.37 (42% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS corroboration (No): H2H BTTS rate only 20%, Poisson BTTS probability 41% — clean-sheet tendency backed by both data sources
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City in?
• St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-D • Derry City (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-L • St Patrick's Athl. home split: 2.20 PPG from 10 | GF 2.20 / GA 0.60 | CS 4 • Derry City away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | CS 1 • Form edge: St Patrick's Athl. lead by 0.50 PPG (1.50 vs 1.00) • xG vs form (St Patrick's Athl.): Poisson projects 1.72 xG vs form scoring rate of 2.20 — model is more cautious than form; the opposition's defensive strength is tempering the scoring expectation • xG vs form (Derry City): Poisson projects 0.65 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.10 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Goals margin: form ~2.1 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.37 (42% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~60% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 41% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on St Patrick's Athl. — St Patrick's Athl. at 62% Poisson win probability
What do the betting odds say about St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture