Poisson rates Dundalk at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Oriel Park plays host to Dundalk versus Sligo Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Friday 31 July 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dundalk have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Dundalk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dundalk at Oriel Park this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sligo Rovers's overall Premier Division record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sligo Rovers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sligo Rovers away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Dundalk's favour (1.40 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Dundalk lead 5W to 4W over the last 10 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 0–2 with Sligo Rovers winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Stats
Across 24 matches this season, Dundalk have gone 9W 8D 7L. Their scoring output is 1.6 per match with 1.5 conceded on average. Biggest win: 5-0 (H) / 2-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-3 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 2 games this season. 5 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 3 of 24 games (12%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards per game, 0.25 reds per game.
Sligo Rovers have played 24 games this season, recording 5W 5D 14L. Their scoring output is 0.8 per match with 1.7 conceded on average. Biggest win: 2-0 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-4 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 4 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 11 games this season. 5 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 2 away). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards per game, 0.17 reds per game.
Dundalk have the stronger attack on season averages, scoring 1.60 per game versus 0.80 for the visitors. Penalty activity: Dundalk 2/2 vs Sligo Rovers 2/2 this season.
Where They Stand
The standings have Dundalk (4th, 35 pts) 6 places above Sligo Rovers (10th, 20 pts) — a 15-point gap in Premier Division.
On home turf, Dundalk's Premier Division record reads 6W 2D 4L this term. Sligo Rovers have gone 2W 2D 8L on their travels. Sligo Rovers: Relegation - Division 1.
Trading & In-Play
Dundalk — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Sligo Rovers — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 71% versus Sligo Rovers 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 62% | Sligo Rovers 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.65 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 0.960 / defence 1.139 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.758 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.306. Data: 24 Dundalk games / 60 Sligo Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 48% | Draw 27% | Sligo Rovers 25%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Sligo Rovers 4.00. Dundalk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dundalk are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dundalk if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Dundalk 70% | Sligo Rovers 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 31 Jul 2026, 18:45 UTC • Managers: Dundalk (S. O'Donnell) | Sligo Rovers (J. Russell) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (10 meetings): Dundalk 5W | Draws 1 | Sligo Rovers 4W • Goals trend: 2.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Dundalk 8 – 12 Sligo Rovers • H2H markets: BTTS 20% | Over 2.5 20% | Win rates: Dundalk 50% / Draw 10% / Sligo Rovers 40% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 48% / draw 27% / away 25% • Goals: H2H average 2.00/game (20% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.77 (52% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 20%, Poisson probability 56% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Dundalk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-L • Sligo Rovers (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-L • Dundalk home split: 1.60 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | CS 3 • Sligo Rovers away split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | CS 1 • Form edge: Dundalk lead by 0.80 PPG (1.40 vs 0.60) • xG vs form (Dundalk): Poisson xG of 1.65 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.50 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Sligo Rovers): Poisson projects 1.13 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.70 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals contradiction — form projects only ~1.9 goals/game (Under signal) but Poisson xG sum is 2.77 (52% Over probability) — underlying attack/defence strengths differ from surface-level results • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~55% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 56% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Dundalk — Dundalk at 48% Poisson win probability
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 48% | Draw 27% | Sligo Rovers 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Dundalk 1.65 / Sligo Rovers 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 0.960 / def 1.139 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.758 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (48%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Sligo Rovers xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers kick off?
Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers is scheduled to kick off at 18:45 on Friday 31 July 2026 at Oriel Park.
Where is Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers part of?
Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 48% chance of winning, Sligo Rovers a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Dundalk and Sligo Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Sligo Rovers?
• Record (10 meetings): Dundalk 5W | Draws 1 | Sligo Rovers 4W • Goals trend: 2.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Dundalk 8 – 12 Sligo Rovers • H2H markets: BTTS 20% | Over 2.5 20% | Win rates: Dundalk 50% / Draw 10% / Sligo Rovers 40% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 48% / draw 27% / away 25% • Goals: H2H average 2.00/game (20% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.77 (52% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 20%, Poisson probability 56% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Dundalk and Sligo Rovers in?
• Dundalk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-L • Sligo Rovers (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-L • Dundalk home split: 1.60 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | CS 3 • Sligo Rovers away split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | CS 1 • Form edge: Dundalk lead by 0.80 PPG (1.40 vs 0.60) • xG vs form (Dundalk): Poisson xG of 1.65 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.50 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Sligo Rovers): Poisson projects 1.13 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.70 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals contradiction — form projects only ~1.9 goals/game (Under signal) but Poisson xG sum is 2.77 (52% Over probability) — underlying attack/defence strengths differ from surface-level results • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~55% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 56% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Dundalk — Dundalk at 48% Poisson win probability
What do the betting odds say about Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture