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Poisson model favours Shamrock Rovers (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Drogheda United face Shamrock Rovers.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Drogheda United and Shamrock Rovers meet at Weavers Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Friday 31 July 2026 at 18:45 UTC.

Current Form

Drogheda United's overall Premier Division record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Drogheda United, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Weavers Park, Drogheda United have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Shamrock Rovers (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shamrock Rovers, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Shamrock Rovers have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.

Shamrock Rovers arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H History

Shamrock Rovers hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 7 wins from 10 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2026, ended 1–4 with Shamrock Rovers winning.

It is worth noting that Shamrock Rovers have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 7 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Statistical Overview

Drogheda United's cumulative Premier Division record this campaign: 6W 7D 11L from 24 matches. Attacking returns: 1.2 goals per game; defensive: 1.7 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 2-0 (H) / 3-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-3 (H) / 4-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 5 games this season. 6 clean sheets this season (5 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 24 games (8%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 1 missed from 3 awarded. Most used formation: 5-3-2. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game.

On the season-wide numbers, Shamrock Rovers show 15W 5D 5L from 25 outings in Premier Division. Attacking returns: 1.6 goals per game; defensive: 0.9 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 4-1 (H) / 1-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-2 (H) / 3-2 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 3 games this season. 9 clean sheets this season (5 at home, 4 away). Scored 2+ goals in 4 of 25 games (16%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 3-4-2-1. Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards per game.

Shamrock Rovers have been the more prolific side this season at 1.60 goals per game compared to 1.20 for the hosts. Shamrock Rovers have kept their defensive record in better shape, conceding 0.90 per game versus 1.70 for the hosts. Shamrock Rovers lead on clean sheets this season (9 vs 6). Penalty activity: Drogheda United 2/3 vs Shamrock Rovers 4/4 this season.

Current Standings

In the Premier Division table, Shamrock Rovers sit 1st on 50 points, 7 places and 25 points ahead of Drogheda United in 8th.

Drogheda United's home record this season stands at 3W 5D 4L. Away from home, Shamrock Rovers have posted 6W 3D 4L in Premier Division this season. Shamrock Rovers: Promotion - Champions League (Qualification).

Trading Data

Drogheda United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).

Shamrock Rovers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Drogheda United 55% versus Shamrock Rovers 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Drogheda United 45% | Shamrock Rovers 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Drogheda United 1.00 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Drogheda United attack 0.853 / defence 1.044 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.018 / defence 0.773. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.306. Shamrock Rovers's defence strength of 0.773 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 60 Drogheda United games / 61 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Drogheda United 26% | Draw 30% | Shamrock Rovers 44%. Fair-value odds: Drogheda United 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | Shamrock Rovers 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Drogheda United 50% | Shamrock Rovers 50%.

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