Waterford 1-1 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shamrock Rovers (41%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Waterford face Shamrock Rovers.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Waterford host Shamrock Rovers at Regional Sports Centre in Premier Division (matchday 9). Kick-off is Friday 3 April 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Waterford stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Waterford have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Shamrock Rovers have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Shamrock Rovers's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Shamrock Rovers are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Waterford's last 10 home games and Shamrock Rovers's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
Shamrock Rovers have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the 6 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Waterford.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Sep 2025, ended Waterford 1–2 Shamrock Rovers — a Shamrock Rovers win.
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 6 wins from 6 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Profile
Waterford in-play tendencies (last 72 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Shamrock Rovers in-play tendencies (last 72 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waterford 54% versus Shamrock Rovers 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waterford 56% | Shamrock Rovers 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 0.94 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 0.724 / defence 1.056 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.140 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.013. Waterford's attack rating of 0.724 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.94. Data: built from Waterford's last 44 games and Shamrock Rovers's last 44.
Result probabilities: Waterford 27% | Draw 33% | Shamrock Rovers 41%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 3.75 | Draw 3.06 | Shamrock Rovers 2.46. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Waterford 70% (last 10 home games) | Shamrock Rovers 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 9 | Venue: Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Friday 3 April 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 27% | Draw 33% | Shamrock Rovers 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Waterford 0.94 / Shamrock Rovers 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 0.724 / def 1.056 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.140 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.325 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Shamrock Rovers xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers FAQs
What time does Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 3 April 2026 at Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers?
Waterford 1 - 1 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 9) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 27% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 41% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Waterford and Shamrock Rovers will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Waterford's attack rating (0.72) and Shamrock Rovers's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shamrock Rovers's attack versus Waterford's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Waterford's last 44 games and Shamrock Rovers's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 0-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
27%
3.75
33%
3.06
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Waterford xG
Total xG
2.16
1.22
Shamrock Rovers xG
3.75
27%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
8%
12.67
16%
6.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 14.0 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Waterford and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Waterford and 1.22 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Waterford come into this having played 72 games, going 25W 11D 36L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-W.
On the other side, Shamrock Rovers sit at 1.76 PPG from 72 outings (36W 19D 17L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five.
Shamrock Rovers carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Waterford — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Waterford's home form reads 13W 6D 16L across their last 35 home games, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Shamrock Rovers have taken 1.57 points per game from their last 35 away games (15W 10D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Waterford are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.47 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
Waterford (Home) vs Shamrock Rovers (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Waterford
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
❓ Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers Form FAQs
What form are Waterford and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
Waterford have gone 25W 11D 36L in their last 72 games (1.19 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 36W 19D 17L in their last 72 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waterford at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
Shamrock Rovers's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waterford at home: 1.29 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Waterford or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Waterford have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 18 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Shamrock Rovers have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Waterford's record when hosting Shamrock Rovers specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Waterford
1
Draws
9
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Shamrock Rovers?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Waterford have won 0, Shamrock Rovers have won 9, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Waterford and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 September 2026: Shamrock Rovers 3-2 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Waterford and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waterford 60%, Shamrock Rovers 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Waterford) and 49% (Shamrock Rovers).
On the defensive side: Waterford have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Waterford and Shamrock Rovers matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Waterford's games and 63% of Shamrock Rovers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Waterford and Shamrock Rovers matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Waterford's recent games and 49% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Waterford and Shamrock Rovers matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Waterford's recent matches and 60% of Shamrock Rovers's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Waterford and Shamrock Rovers share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waterford and Shamrock Rovers finished level at 1-1 at Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 0.94 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.22 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.72 / defence 1.06 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.14 / defence 0.98, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 27% | Draw 33% | Shamrock Rovers 41%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 56%, Shamrock Rovers 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waterford's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.