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Poisson model favours Shelbourne (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shelbourne face Dundalk.

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Analysis

Dundalk make the trip to Tolka Park to face Shelbourne in Premier Division, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Friday 3 April 2026 at 18:45 UTC.

Form

Shelbourne (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Shelbourne at Tolka Park this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Dundalk have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Dundalk haven't played a Premier Division game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Dundalk away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form ledger tips toward Shelbourne. A 1.80 PPG lead over Dundalk (2.10 vs 0.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Shelbourne have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Dundalk in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Historically, Shelbourne have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 6 meetings, with Dundalk managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 6 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2026, ended 2–1 with Shelbourne winning.

The historical record gives Shelbourne a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Shelbourne — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Dundalk — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 61% versus Dundalk 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Shelbourne 44% | Dundalk 28%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.73 xG and Dundalk 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 1.046 / defence 1.145 | Dundalk attack 0.994 / defence 1.246. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.013. Dundalk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.246 — this is suppressing Shelbourne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Shelbourne games / 8 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Shelbourne 49% | Draw 27% | Dundalk 24%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Dundalk 4.17. Shelbourne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Shelbourne are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shelbourne if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Shelbourne 60% | Dundalk 60% BTTS from recent games.

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