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Poisson model rates Waterford at 35%, yet in-form St Patrick's Athl. provide a compelling counter-argument — this Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

St Patrick's Athl. make the trip to Regional Sports Centre to face Waterford in Premier Division, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Friday 20 March 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

Form

Waterford (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Waterford at Regional Sports Centre this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

St Patrick's Athl.'s overall Premier Division record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. St Patrick's Athl. are 0.90 PPG clear of Waterford in recent Premier Division fixtures (1.70 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Waterford lead 1W to 3W over the last 7 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Stats

Across 37 matches this season, Waterford have gone 12W 6D 19L. They average 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game. Biggest win: 2-0 (H) / 2-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-4 (H) / 7-2 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 7 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 11 games this season. 5 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 37 games (5%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 4-3-1-2. Discipline: 2.8 yellow cards per game, 0.08 reds per game.

St Patrick's Athl.'s full-season record stands at 13W 13D 10L from 36 games. Their scoring output is 1.2 per match with 0.9 conceded on average. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 0-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-1 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 14 games this season. 18 clean sheets this season (10 at home, 8 away). Scored 2+ goals in 5 of 36 games (14%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 4-3-3. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game, 0.08 reds per game.

St Patrick's Athl. have kept their defensive record in better shape, conceding 0.90 per game versus 1.60 for the hosts. St Patrick's Athl. lead on clean sheets this season (18 vs 5). Penalty activity: Waterford 2/2 vs St Patrick's Athl. 4/4 this season.

Trading & In-Play

Waterford — key trading statistics (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

St Patrick's Athl. — key trading statistics (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waterford 54% versus St Patrick's Athl. 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waterford 56% | St Patrick's Athl. 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 1.03 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 0.791 / defence 0.957 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.996 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 0.998. Waterford's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 Waterford games / 43 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Waterford 35% | Draw 35% | St Patrick's Athl. 31%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 2.86 | Draw 2.86 | St Patrick's Athl. 3.23. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.98 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Waterford 70% | St Patrick's Athl. 20% BTTS from recent games.

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