Waterford 3-3 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Waterford at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Waterford vs Dundalk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Waterford welcome Dundalk to Regional Sports Centre in Premier Division (matchday 15). Kick-off is Monday 4 May 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Waterford have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Waterford's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dundalk — last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Dundalk away from home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Waterford have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (0.80 vs 0.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Waterford's games and 60% of Dundalk's (from Waterford's last 10 home games and Dundalk's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Waterford have won 3, Dundalk 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Mar 2026, ended Waterford 0–5 Dundalk — a Dundalk win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Waterford in-play and half-time data (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 94% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Dundalk in-play and half-time data (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waterford 58% versus Dundalk 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waterford 58% | Dundalk 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 1.31 xG and Dundalk 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 0.723 / defence 0.988 | Dundalk attack 0.953 / defence 1.255. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.143. Waterford's attack rating of 0.723 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.31. Dundalk's defence rating of 1.255 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Waterford's projected output up. Data: built from Waterford's last 49 games and Dundalk's last 14.
Result probabilities: Waterford 41% | Draw 30% | Dundalk 29%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 2.46 | Draw 3.34 | Dundalk 3.41. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Waterford as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waterford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Waterford 70% (last 10 home games) | Dundalk 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 15 | Venue: Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Monday 4 May 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 41% | Draw 30% | Dundalk 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Waterford 1.31 / Dundalk 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 0.723 / def 0.988 | Dundalk attack 0.953 / def 1.255 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Waterford (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Dundalk xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Waterford vs Dundalk FAQs
What time does Waterford vs Dundalk kick off?
Waterford vs Dundalk kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Monday 4 May 2026 at Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs Dundalk?
Waterford 3 - 3 Dundalk.
Where is Waterford vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs Dundalk part of?
Waterford vs Dundalk is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 15) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 41% chance of winning, Dundalk a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Waterford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Waterford and Dundalk will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Waterford vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Waterford's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Dundalk's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, Dundalk's attack versus Waterford's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Waterford's last 49 games and Dundalk's last 14 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waterford Win
41%
2.46
30%
3.34
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Waterford xG
Total xG
2.39
1.08
Dundalk xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
14%
7.21
8%
12.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.0 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Waterford vs Dundalk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Waterford and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Waterford and 1.08 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Waterford's recent record stands at 11W 6D 19L from 36 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-W in the last five.
Dundalk, meanwhile, have gone 5W 11D 20L across 36 games — 0.72 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Waterford on 1.08 PPG, Dundalk on 0.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Waterford have managed 6W 3D 9L from their last 18 home games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dundalk's away record stands at 1W 6D 11L across their last 18 away games, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Waterford come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Waterford are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 0.64 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 36 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Current Season
Dundalk
Pre-Season
Waterford (Home) vs Dundalk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Waterford
Current Season
Dundalk
Pre-Season
❓ Waterford vs Dundalk Form FAQs
What form are Waterford and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Waterford have gone 11W 6D 19L in their last 36 games (1.08 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 5W 11D 20L in their last 36 (0.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waterford at home or Dundalk away?
Waterford's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waterford at home: 1.17 PPG; Dundalk away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 5 years from September 2021. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 11 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Mar 2026, when Dundalk won Dundalk 5-0 Waterford.
Waterford's record when hosting Dundalk specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Waterford
4
Draws
2
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Waterford vs Dundalk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Dundalk?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Waterford have won 4, Dundalk have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and Dundalk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 September 2026: Waterford 1-1 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Waterford and Dundalk?
Waterford have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waterford 61%, Dundalk 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Waterford) and 39% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: Dundalk in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Waterford vs Dundalk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Waterford and Dundalk matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Waterford's games and 67% of Dundalk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Waterford and Dundalk matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Waterford's recent games and 39% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Waterford and Dundalk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 94% of Waterford's recent matches and 72% of Dundalk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Waterford and Dundalk share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waterford and Dundalk finished level at 3-3 at Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 1.31 xG and Dundalk 1.08 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Waterford beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dundalk outscored their 1.08 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.72 / defence 0.99 against Dundalk attack 0.95 / defence 1.25, drawn from 49/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 41% | Draw 30% | Dundalk 29%, with Waterford to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 58%, Dundalk 28%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waterford's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Dundalk's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waterford 1.08 PPG, Dundalk 0.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Waterford (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dundalk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.