Poisson model rates Dundalk at 45%, yet in-form Shelbourne provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dundalk vs Shelbourne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shelbourne make the trip to Oriel Park to face Dundalk in Premier Division, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Friday 1 May 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dundalk have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Dundalk haven't played a Premier Division game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dundalk have posted 2W 1D 7L at Oriel Park — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Shelbourne's overall Premier Division record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Shelbourne's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Shelbourne are the stronger side — 1.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Across the last 7 meetings, Shelbourne have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Dundalk's 1, with 1 draws in the mix.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2026, ended 3–2 with Dundalk winning.
It is worth noting that Shelbourne have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Stats
On the season-wide numbers, Shelbourne show 15W 14D 7L from 36 outings in Premier Division. Attacking returns: 1.3 goals per game; defensive: 1.0 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 3-1 (H) / 0-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-2 (H) / 2-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 5 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 8 games this season. 9 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 5 away). Scored 2+ goals in 5 of 36 games (14%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 0 missed from 3 awarded. Most used formation: 5-3-2. Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards per game, 0.08 reds per game.
Trading & In-Play
Dundalk — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 11% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Shelbourne — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 39% versus Shelbourne 61%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dundalk 28% | Shelbourne 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.65 xG and Shelbourne 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.170 / defence 0.902 | Shelbourne attack 1.203 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.153. Shelbourne have an above-average attack strength of 1.203 — the away xG of 1.25 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 13 Dundalk games / 48 Shelbourne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 45% | Draw 27% | Shelbourne 28%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Shelbourne 3.57. Dundalk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dundalk are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shelbourne (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dundalk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Dundalk 20% | Shelbourne 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Shelbourne | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 1 May 2026, 18:45 UTC • Managers: Dundalk (S. O'Donnell) | Shelbourne (D. Duff) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (7 meetings): Dundalk 1W | Draws 1 | Shelbourne 5W • Goals trend: 2.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Dundalk 5 – 9 Shelbourne • H2H markets: BTTS 43% | Over 2.5 43% | Win rates: Dundalk 14% / Draw 14% / Shelbourne 71% • Historical edge: Shelbourne dominant — 5W from 7 meetings (71% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Shelbourne (historical win rate 71%) but Poisson model rates Dundalk as more likely (home 45% / draw 27% / away 28%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals: H2H average 2.00/game (43% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.90 (56% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 43%, Poisson probability 59% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Dundalk (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-D • Shelbourne (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D • Dundalk home split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | CS 2 • Shelbourne away split: 1.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | CS 3 • Form edge: Shelbourne lead by 1.80 PPG (2.10 vs 0.30) • xG vs form (Dundalk): Poisson projects 1.65 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.60 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Shelbourne): Poisson xG of 1.25 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.50 — consistent corroboration • Goals contradiction — form projects only ~1.6 goals/game (Under signal) but Poisson xG sum is 2.90 (56% Over probability) — underlying attack/defence strengths differ from surface-level results • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~45% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 59% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Shelbourne on PPG but Poisson rates Dundalk higher (45% vs 28% for Shelbourne) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 45% | Draw 27% | Shelbourne 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Dundalk 1.65 / Shelbourne 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.170 / def 0.902 | Shelbourne attack 1.203 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (45%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Shelbourne xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Shelbourne kick off?
Dundalk vs Shelbourne kicked off at 18:45 on Friday 1 May 2026 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Shelbourne?
Dundalk 1 - 2 Shelbourne.
Where is Dundalk vs Shelbourne being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Shelbourne part of?
Dundalk vs Shelbourne is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 45% chance of winning, Shelbourne a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Shelbourne?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Dundalk and Shelbourne will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Shelbourne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Shelbourne?
• Record (7 meetings): Dundalk 1W | Draws 1 | Shelbourne 5W • Goals trend: 2.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Dundalk 5 – 9 Shelbourne • H2H markets: BTTS 43% | Over 2.5 43% | Win rates: Dundalk 14% / Draw 14% / Shelbourne 71% • Historical edge: Shelbourne dominant — 5W from 7 meetings (71% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Shelbourne (historical win rate 71%) but Poisson model rates Dundalk as more likely (home 45% / draw 27% / away 28%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals: H2H average 2.00/game (43% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.90 (56% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 43%, Poisson probability 59% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Dundalk and Shelbourne in?
• Dundalk (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-D • Shelbourne (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D • Dundalk home split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | CS 2 • Shelbourne away split: 1.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | CS 3 • Form edge: Shelbourne lead by 1.80 PPG (2.10 vs 0.30) • xG vs form (Dundalk): Poisson projects 1.65 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.60 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Shelbourne): Poisson xG of 1.25 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.50 — consistent corroboration • Goals contradiction — form projects only ~1.6 goals/game (Under signal) but Poisson xG sum is 2.90 (56% Over probability) — underlying attack/defence strengths differ from surface-level results • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~45% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 59% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Shelbourne on PPG but Poisson rates Dundalk higher (45% vs 28% for Shelbourne) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
What do the betting odds say about Dundalk vs Shelbourne?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture