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Poisson model favours St Patrick's Athl. (78%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as St Patrick's Athl. face Waterford.

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Pre-Match Analysis

St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford meet at Richmond Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Friday 8 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Current Form

St Patrick's Athl.'s overall Premier Division record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

At home at Richmond Park, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Richmond Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Waterford have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

Waterford's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form favours the hosts. St Patrick's Athl.'s 1.70 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Waterford's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

Historically, St Patrick's Athl. have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 8 meetings, with Waterford managing just 1 victories and 3 draws shared.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Mar 2026, ended 2–0 with St Patrick's Athl. winning.

The historical record gives St Patrick's Athl. a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Stats

Across 36 matches this season, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 13W 13D 10L. They average 1.2 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 0-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-1 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 14 games this season. 18 clean sheets this season (10 at home, 8 away). Scored 2+ goals in 5 of 36 games (14%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 4-3-3. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game, 0.08 reds per game.

Waterford's full-season record stands at 12W 6D 19L from 37 games. Their scoring output is 1.2 per match with 1.6 conceded on average. Biggest win: 2-0 (H) / 2-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-4 (H) / 7-2 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 7 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 11 games this season. 5 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 37 games (5%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 4-3-1-2. Discipline: 2.8 yellow cards per game, 0.08 reds per game.

St Patrick's Athl. have the superior defensive numbers, conceding 0.90 per game against Waterford's 1.60. St Patrick's Athl. lead on clean sheets this season (18 vs 5). Penalty activity: St Patrick's Athl. 4/4 vs Waterford 2/2 this season.

Trading & In-Play

St Patrick's Athl. — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.

Waterford — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 43% versus Waterford 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 47% | Waterford 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 2.71 xG and Waterford 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.324 / defence 0.757 | Waterford attack 0.822 / defence 1.384. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.208. St Patrick's Athl. carry an above-average attack strength of 1.324 — their λ of 2.71 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Waterford bring a strong defensive rating of 1.384 — this is suppressing St Patrick's Athl.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating of 0.757 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 St Patrick's Athl. games / 50 Waterford games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 78% | Draw 16% | Waterford 7%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 1.28 | Draw 6.25 | Waterford 14.29. The model has a clear lean to St Patrick's Athl. (78%) — a 71pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

Form averages suggest only ~1.8 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 67% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.

On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 78% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.46 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: St Patrick's Athl. 30% | Waterford 60%.

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