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Poisson rates Shelbourne at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians vs Shelbourne encounter.

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Analysis

Shelbourne make the trip to Dalymount Park to face Bohemians in Premier Division, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Monday 4 May 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Form

Bohemians (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Bohemians's home record at Dalymount Park: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dalymount Park. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Bohemians are significantly better at Dalymount Park than their overall form suggests.

Shelbourne have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Shelbourne away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Shelbourne arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Bohemians, 2 for Shelbourne and 5 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Statistical Overview

Bohemians's cumulative Premier Division record this campaign: 16W 6D 14L from 36 matches. They average 1.3 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 1-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-2 (H) / 3-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 11 games this season. 13 clean sheets this season (8 at home, 5 away). Scored 2+ goals in 7 of 36 games (19%). Penalties this season: 5 scored / 0 missed from 5 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game.

Shelbourne's full-season record stands at 15W 14D 7L from 36 games. They average 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game. Biggest win: 3-1 (H) / 0-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-2 (H) / 2-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 5 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 8 games this season. 9 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 5 away). Scored 2+ goals in 5 of 36 games (14%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 0 missed from 3 awarded. Most used formation: 5-3-2. Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards per game, 0.08 reds per game.

Bohemians lead on clean sheets this season (13 vs 9). Penalty activity: Bohemians 5/5 vs Shelbourne 3/3 this season.

Trading Data

Bohemians goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).

Shelbourne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 49% versus Shelbourne 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bohemians 42% | Shelbourne 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.16 xG and Shelbourne 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 0.873 / defence 1.016 | Shelbourne attack 1.285 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.143. Shelbourne have an above-average attack strength of 1.285 — the away xG of 1.49 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 50 Bohemians games / 49 Shelbourne games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bohemians 28% | Draw 28% | Shelbourne 44%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Shelbourne 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Shelbourne are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shelbourne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 40% | Shelbourne 70% BTTS from recent games.

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