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Poisson model rates Dundalk at 40%, yet in-form Bohemians provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dundalk vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Dundalk and Bohemians meet at Oriel Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Friday 8 May 2026 at 18:45 UTC.

Current Form

Dundalk's overall Premier Division record this term: 0W 3D 7L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Dundalk haven't played a Premier Division game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Dundalk's home record at Oriel Park: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Premier Division appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Bohemians have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Premier Division this season, Bohemians have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Bohemians arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Trading Data

Dundalk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 11% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.

Bohemians goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 39% versus Bohemians 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dundalk 28% | Bohemians 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.31 xG and Bohemians 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.107 / defence 0.967 | Bohemians attack 0.945 / defence 0.782. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.184. Bohemians's defence strength of 0.782 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 15 Dundalk games / 51 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Dundalk 40% | Draw 31% | Bohemians 29%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Bohemians 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Dundalk at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bohemians (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dundalk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Dundalk 20% | Bohemians 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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