Waterford 2-2 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Derry City (34%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Waterford face Derry City.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Waterford host Derry City at Regional Sports Centre in Premier Division (matchday 17). Kick-off is Friday 15 May 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Waterford — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Waterford have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Derry City have recorded 6W 4D 0L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Derry City have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Derry City — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, Derry City have the better record in our head-to-head data — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches against 2 for Waterford.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 27 Feb 2026, ended Waterford 2–4 Derry City — a Derry City win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Derry City have won 5 of 7 H2H matches, and at 4.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Waterford in-play tendencies (last 72 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Derry City in-play tendencies (last 72 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waterford 54% versus Derry City 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waterford 56% | Derry City 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 1.02 xG and Derry City 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 0.853 / defence 1.105 | Derry City attack 0.805 / defence 0.802. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.212. Data: built from Waterford's last 51 games and Derry City's last 52.
Result probabilities: Waterford 32% | Draw 34% | Derry City 34%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 3.16 | Draw 2.96 | Derry City 2.90. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 65% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Waterford 70% (last 10 home games) | Derry City 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 17 | Venue: Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Friday 15 May 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 32% | Draw 34% | Derry City 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Waterford 1.02 / Derry City 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 0.853 / def 1.105 | Derry City attack 0.805 / def 0.802 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Derry City xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Waterford vs Derry City FAQs
What time does Waterford vs Derry City kick off?
Waterford vs Derry City kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 15 May 2026 at Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs Derry City?
Waterford 2 - 2 Derry City.
Where is Waterford vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs Derry City part of?
Waterford vs Derry City is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 17) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 32% chance of winning, Derry City a 34% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Waterford and Derry City will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Waterford vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Waterford's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Derry City's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, Derry City's attack versus Waterford's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Waterford's last 51 games and Derry City's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
32%
3.16
34%
2.96
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Waterford xG
Total xG
2.10
1.08
Derry City xG
3.16
32%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
11%
9.29
12%
8.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 13.2 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Waterford vs Derry City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Waterford and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Waterford and 1.08 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Waterford come into this having played 72 games, going 25W 11D 36L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-W.
On the other side, Derry City sit at 1.64 PPG from 72 outings (32W 22D 18L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Derry City carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Waterford — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Waterford's home form reads 13W 6D 16L across their last 35 home games, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Derry City have taken 1.46 points per game from their last 35 away games (14W 9D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Waterford are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.39 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Current Season
Derry City
Current Season
Waterford (Home) vs Derry City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Waterford
Current Season
Derry City
Current Season
❓ Waterford vs Derry City Form FAQs
What form are Waterford and Derry City in coming into this match?
Waterford have gone 25W 11D 36L in their last 72 games (1.19 PPG), while Derry City have gone 32W 22D 18L in their last 72 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waterford at home or Derry City away?
Derry City's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waterford at home: 1.29 PPG; Derry City away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Waterford or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Waterford have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Derry City in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to June 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 14 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 Jul 2025, when Derry City won Derry City 7-2 Waterford.
Waterford's record when hosting Derry City specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Waterford
2
Draws
5
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Waterford vs Derry City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Derry City?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Waterford have won 3, Derry City have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and Derry City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 September 2026: Waterford 2-2 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between Waterford and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waterford 60%, Derry City 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Waterford) and 37% (Derry City).
On the defensive side: Derry City in 37%; Waterford have failed to score in 29% of games; Derry City in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Waterford vs Derry City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Waterford and Derry City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Waterford's recent matches and 43% of Derry City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Waterford and Derry City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Waterford's recent games and 37% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Waterford and Derry City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Waterford's recent matches and 63% of Derry City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Waterford and Derry City share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 17, as Waterford and Derry City drew 2-2 in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 1.02 xG and Derry City 1.08 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Waterford beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Derry City outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.85 / defence 1.10 against Derry City attack 0.81 / defence 0.80, drawn from 51/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 32% | Draw 34% | Derry City 34%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 56%, Derry City 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waterford's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Derry City arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Derry City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.