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Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers encounter.

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Analysis

Shamrock Rovers make the trip to Oriel Park to face Dundalk in Premier Division, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Friday 15 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Dundalk have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Dundalk haven't played a Premier Division game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Dundalk's home record at Oriel Park: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Premier Division appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Shamrock Rovers (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Shamrock Rovers's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On a straight form reading, Shamrock Rovers are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Dundalk 3W, Shamrock Rovers 4W, 2D.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.4 per game from 9 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Statistical Overview

On the season-wide numbers, Shamrock Rovers show 19W 9D 8L from 36 outings in Premier Division. They average 1.6 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 1-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-3 (H) / 2-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 5 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 7 games this season. 12 clean sheets this season (10 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 5 of 36 games (14%). Penalties this season: 1 scored / 0 missed from 1 awarded. Most used formation: 5-3-2. Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards per game, 0.06 reds per game.

Trading & In-Play

Dundalk — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 11% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.

Shamrock Rovers — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 39% versus Shamrock Rovers 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 28% | Shamrock Rovers 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.27 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.094 / defence 1.115 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.045 / defence 0.782. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.215. Shamrock Rovers's defence strength of 0.782 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 16 Dundalk games / 52 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Dundalk 33% | Draw 28% | Shamrock Rovers 39%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Shamrock Rovers 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 1.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Dundalk 20% | Shamrock Rovers 70%.

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