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Poisson model rates Derry City at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Derry City host St Patrick's Athl. at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in Premier Division, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 22 May 2026 at 18:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Premier Division games this season, Derry City have gone 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Derry City's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium this season.

Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

On current form, Derry City have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Team Stats

Derry City have played 36 games this season, recording 18W 9D 9L. Attacking returns: 1.4 goals per game; defensive: 1.1 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 7-2 (H) / 3-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-3 (H) / 3-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 6 games this season. 12 clean sheets this season (7 at home, 5 away). Scored 2+ goals in 5 of 36 games (14%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 5-3-2. Discipline: 3.2 yellow cards per game, 0.19 reds per game.

In-Play Data

Derry City trading profile (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derry City 53% versus St Patrick's Athl. 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derry City 43% | St Patrick's Athl. 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 1.40 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 1.014 / defence 0.992 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.043 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.230. Data: 53 Derry City games / 53 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Derry City 39% | Draw 27% | St Patrick's Athl. 34%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | St Patrick's Athl. 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Derry City at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derry City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Derry City 70% | St Patrick's Athl. 20%.

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