Waterford 0-1 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Waterford face Bohemians.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Waterford welcome Bohemians to Regional Sports Centre in Premier Division (matchday 5). Kick-off is Friday 6 March 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Waterford have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Waterford's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bohemians — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bohemians's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Waterford) versus 1.20 (Bohemians). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Waterford have won 3, Bohemians 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 19 Sep 2025, ended Waterford 1–2 Bohemians — a Bohemians win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Waterford trading profile (last 72 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Bohemians trading profile (last 72 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waterford 54% versus Bohemians 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waterford 56% | Bohemians 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 0.80 xG and Bohemians 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 0.853 / defence 0.943 | Bohemians attack 1.290 / defence 0.724. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.023. Bohemians bring a tight defence (rating 0.724, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Waterford's projected output down. Bohemians have an above-average attack rating of 1.290, which lifts their away xG to 1.24. Data: built from Waterford's last 40 games and Bohemians's last 40. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Waterford 22% | Draw 34% | Bohemians 44%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 4.61 | Draw 2.96 | Bohemians 2.25. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 66% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 59%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Waterford 70% (last 10 home games) | Bohemians 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
The Poisson model's sample (Waterford 40 games, Bohemians 40) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 5 | Venue: Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Friday 6 March 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 22% | Draw 34% | Bohemians 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Waterford 0.80 / Bohemians 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 0.853 / def 0.943 | Bohemians attack 1.290 / def 0.724 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.023 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Bohemians xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Waterford vs Bohemians FAQs
What time does Waterford vs Bohemians kick off?
Waterford vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 6 March 2026 at Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs Bohemians?
Waterford 0 - 1 Bohemians.
Where is Waterford vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs Bohemians part of?
Waterford vs Bohemians is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 5) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 22% chance of winning, Bohemians a 44% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Waterford and Bohemians will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Waterford vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Waterford's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Bohemians's defensive record (0.72x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.80. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians's attack versus Waterford's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Waterford's last 40 games and Bohemians's last 40, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.6%), 0-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
22%
4.61
34%
2.96
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Waterford xG
Total xG
2.04
1.24
Bohemians xG
4.61
22%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
45%
2.23
Win to Nil
6%
15.98
20%
5.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 16.1 | 10.0 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.9 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Waterford vs Bohemians Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Waterford and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Waterford and 1.24 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 72 outings, Waterford have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 25W 11D 36L record — W-L-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Bohemians's form line: 26W 18D 28L from 72 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Waterford on 1.19 PPG, Bohemians on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Waterford have posted 1.29 PPG from their last 35 home games (13W 6D 16L).
On the road, Bohemians have gone 11W 10D 14L from their last 35 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Waterford are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.21 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
Waterford (Home) vs Bohemians (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Waterford
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
❓ Waterford vs Bohemians Form FAQs
What form are Waterford and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Waterford have gone 25W 11D 36L in their last 72 games (1.19 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 26W 18D 28L in their last 72 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waterford at home or Bohemians away?
Waterford's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waterford at home: 1.29 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 16 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 7 Mar 2025, when Bohemians won Waterford 0-3 Bohemians.
Waterford's record when hosting Bohemians specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Waterford
2
Draws
4
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Waterford vs Bohemians H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Bohemians?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Waterford have won 4, Bohemians have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and Bohemians last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 October 2026: Bohemians 2-1 Waterford.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waterford 60%, Bohemians 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Waterford) and 43% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: Waterford have failed to score in 29% of games; Bohemians in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Waterford vs Bohemians Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Waterford and Bohemians matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Waterford's recent matches and 49% of Bohemians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Waterford and Bohemians matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Waterford's recent games and 43% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Waterford and Bohemians matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Waterford's recent matches and 69% of Bohemians's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bohemians edge out Waterford 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Waterford 0-1 at Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 0.80 xG and Bohemians 1.24 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Waterford fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.85 / defence 0.94 against Bohemians attack 1.29 / defence 0.72, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 22% | Draw 34% | Bohemians 44%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 56%, Bohemians 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waterford's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waterford 1.19 PPG, Bohemians 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians win broke the near-deadlock. Waterford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Bohemians (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.