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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs Galway United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 6 as Bohemians welcome Galway United to Dalymount Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Bohemians stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Bohemians's home record at Dalymount Park: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dalymount Park. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Bohemians are significantly better at Dalymount Park than their overall form suggests.

Across all Premier Division games this season, Galway United have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Galway United's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bohemians 1.20 PPG, Galway United 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Bohemians, 3 for Galway United and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2025, ended 0–2 with Galway United winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Team Stats

Bohemians have played 36 games this season, recording 16W 6D 14L. They average 1.3 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 1-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-2 (H) / 3-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 11 games this season. 13 clean sheets this season (8 at home, 5 away). Scored 2+ goals in 7 of 36 games (19%). Penalties this season: 5 scored / 0 missed from 5 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game.

In-Play Data

Bohemians trading profile (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).

Galway United trading profile (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 49% versus Galway United 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bohemians 42% | Galway United 31%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.25 xG and Galway United 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.068 / defence 1.006 | Galway United attack 0.811 / defence 0.873. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.098. Data: 41 Bohemians games / 41 Galway United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.

Result probabilities: Bohemians 44% | Draw 31% | Galway United 26%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Galway United 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Bohemians are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 40% | Galway United 40% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (41 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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