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Poisson model rates Shelbourne at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 5 as Shelbourne welcome St Patrick's Athl. to Tolka Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 6 March 2026 at 20:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Premier Division games this season, Shelbourne have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Shelbourne's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Tolka Park this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Shelbourne at 2.10 PPG versus St Patrick's Athl.'s 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Team Stats

Shelbourne have played 36 games this season, recording 15W 14D 7L. Attacking returns: 1.3 goals per game; defensive: 1.0 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 3-1 (H) / 0-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-2 (H) / 2-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 5 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 8 games this season. 9 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 5 away). Scored 2+ goals in 5 of 36 games (14%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 0 missed from 3 awarded. Most used formation: 5-3-2. Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards per game, 0.08 reds per game.

In-Play Profile

Shelbourne in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).

St Patrick's Athl. in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 54% versus St Patrick's Athl. 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shelbourne 38% | St Patrick's Athl. 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.14 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 1.012 / defence 0.999 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.724 / defence 0.877. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.053. Data: 39 Shelbourne games / 40 St Patrick's Athl. games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.

Result probabilities: Shelbourne 43% | Draw 34% | St Patrick's Athl. 23%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 2.33 | Draw 2.94 | St Patrick's Athl. 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Shelbourne as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shelbourne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 1.90 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Shelbourne 60% | St Patrick's Athl. 20% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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