Poisson model rates Dundalk at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dundalk vs Waterford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dundalk host Waterford at Oriel Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dundalk stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 Premier Division matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Dundalk haven't played a Premier Division game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Dundalk's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 games at Oriel Park this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Waterford — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Waterford have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Waterford — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (0.80 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
Waterford have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 7 encounters against Dundalk's 1 victories.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2024, ended 1–2 with Waterford winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Waterford have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 2.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Team Stats
Across 37 matches this season, Waterford have gone 12W 6D 19L. They average 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game. Biggest win: 2-0 (H) / 2-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-4 (H) / 7-2 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 7 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 11 games this season. 5 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 37 games (5%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 4-3-1-2. Discipline: 2.8 yellow cards per game, 0.08 reds per game.
Trading Patterns
Dundalk in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 11% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Waterford in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 39% versus Waterford 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 28% | Waterford 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.50 xG and Waterford 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 0.842 / defence 1.130 | Waterford attack 0.975 / defence 1.332. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.098. Waterford bring a strong defensive rating of 1.332 — this is suppressing Dundalk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Dundalk games / 41 Waterford games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Dundalk 43% | Draw 27% | Waterford 30%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Waterford 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dundalk are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Waterford (0.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dundalk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Dundalk 20% | Waterford 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (5 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 13 Mar 2026, 19:45 UTC • Managers: Dundalk (S. O'Donnell) | Waterford (J. Coleman) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (7 meetings): Dundalk 1W | Draws 1 | Waterford 5W • Goals trend: 2.71 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Dundalk 6 – 13 Waterford • H2H markets: BTTS 57% | Over 2.5 57% | Win rates: Dundalk 14% / Draw 14% / Waterford 71% • Historical edge: Waterford dominant — 5W from 7 meetings (71% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Waterford (historical win rate 71%) but Poisson model rates Dundalk as more likely (home 43% / draw 27% / away 30%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals: H2H average 2.71/game (57% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.71 (51% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 57%, Poisson probability 55% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Dundalk (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-D • Waterford (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-W • Dundalk home split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | CS 2 • Waterford away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | CS 1 • Form edge: Waterford lead by 0.50 PPG (0.80 vs 0.30) • xG vs form (Dundalk): Poisson projects 1.50 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.60 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Waterford): Poisson xG of 1.21 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.10 — consistent corroboration • Goals contradiction — form projects only ~1.7 goals/game (Under signal) but Poisson xG sum is 2.71 (51% Over probability) — underlying attack/defence strengths differ from surface-level results • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~40% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 55% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Waterford on PPG but Poisson rates Dundalk higher (43% vs 30% for Waterford) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 43% | Draw 27% | Waterford 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Dundalk 1.50 / Waterford 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 0.842 / def 1.130 | Waterford attack 0.975 / def 1.332 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Waterford xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Waterford kick off?
Dundalk vs Waterford kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 13 March 2026 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Waterford?
Dundalk 5 - 0 Waterford.
Where is Dundalk vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Waterford part of?
Dundalk vs Waterford is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 43% chance of winning, Waterford a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Dundalk and Waterford will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Waterford?
• Record (7 meetings): Dundalk 1W | Draws 1 | Waterford 5W • Goals trend: 2.71 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Dundalk 6 – 13 Waterford • H2H markets: BTTS 57% | Over 2.5 57% | Win rates: Dundalk 14% / Draw 14% / Waterford 71% • Historical edge: Waterford dominant — 5W from 7 meetings (71% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Waterford (historical win rate 71%) but Poisson model rates Dundalk as more likely (home 43% / draw 27% / away 30%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals: H2H average 2.71/game (57% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.71 (51% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 57%, Poisson probability 55% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Dundalk and Waterford in?
• Dundalk (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-D • Waterford (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-W • Dundalk home split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | CS 2 • Waterford away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | CS 1 • Form edge: Waterford lead by 0.50 PPG (0.80 vs 0.30) • xG vs form (Dundalk): Poisson projects 1.50 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.60 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Waterford): Poisson xG of 1.21 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.10 — consistent corroboration • Goals contradiction — form projects only ~1.7 goals/game (Under signal) but Poisson xG sum is 2.71 (51% Over probability) — underlying attack/defence strengths differ from surface-level results • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~40% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 55% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Waterford on PPG but Poisson rates Dundalk higher (43% vs 30% for Waterford) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
What do the betting odds say about Dundalk vs Waterford?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture