Bohemians 3-2 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bohemians at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dalymount Park plays host to Bohemians versus Shamrock Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Friday 27 February 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bohemians have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Dalymount Park, Bohemians have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dalymount Park. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Bohemians are significantly better at Dalymount Park than their overall form suggests.
Shamrock Rovers (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Shamrock Rovers away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Bohemians against 1.40 for Shamrock Rovers. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Bohemians 4W, Shamrock Rovers 2W, 1D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2025, ended 1–2 with Shamrock Rovers winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Bohemians half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Shamrock Rovers half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 49% versus Shamrock Rovers 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 42% | Shamrock Rovers 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.13 xG and Shamrock Rovers 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 0.927 / defence 0.950 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.016 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.010. Data: 39 Bohemians games / 38 Shamrock Rovers games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 36% | Draw 36% | Shamrock Rovers 28%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 2.78 | Draw 2.78 | Shamrock Rovers 3.57. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 40% | Shamrock Rovers 70%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 27 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 36% | Draw 36% | Shamrock Rovers 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 45% | xG Bohemians 1.13 / Shamrock Rovers 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 0.927 / def 0.950 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.016 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.010 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Shamrock Rovers xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 27 February 2026 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers?
Bohemians 3 - 2 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 36% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 28% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers?
Record (7 meetings): Bohemians 4W | Draws 1 | Shamrock Rovers 2W.
What form are Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers in?
Bohemians (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bohemians's attack at 0.93x the league average against Shamrock Rovers's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shamrock Rovers's attack (1.02x) against Bohemians's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
The sample (39/38 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
36%
2.76
36%
2.81
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.11
0.97
Shamrock Rovers xG
2.76
36%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
14%
7.30
9%
11.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 11.8 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Bohemians and 0.97 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bohemians's recent record stands at 26W 18D 28L from 72 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five.
Shamrock Rovers, meanwhile, have gone 36W 19D 17L across 72 games — 1.76 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shamrock Rovers by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bohemians heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bohemians have managed 14W 8D 14L from 36 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shamrock Rovers's away record stands at 15W 10D 11L across 36 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Bohemians are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.47 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 26W 18D 28L in their last 72 games (1.33 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 36W 19D 17L in their last 72 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
Shamrock Rovers's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.39 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Bohemians or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. They last met on 25 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Shamrock Rovers go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Shamrock Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bohemians
1
Draws
4
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 5, Shamrock Rovers have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when Bohemians 1-2 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 50%, Shamrock Rovers 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Bohemians) and 50% (Shamrock Rovers).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play Shamrock Rovers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Bohemians's games and 64% of Shamrock Rovers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Bohemians's recent games and 50% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Shamrock Rovers in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bohemians edge out Shamrock Rovers 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Shamrock Rovers 3-2 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.13 xG and Shamrock Rovers 0.97 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Bohemians beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shamrock Rovers outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 0.93 / defence 0.95 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.02 / defence 0.98, drawn from 39/38 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 36% | Draw 36% | Shamrock Rovers 28%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 42%, Shamrock Rovers 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Bohemians winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bohemians (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.