UCD 0-0 Finn Harps – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Finn Harps at 39%, yet in-form UCD provide a compelling counter-argument — this UCD vs Finn Harps fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
UCD welcome Finn Harps to UCD Bowl in Premier Division (matchday 2). Kick-off is Friday 25 February 2022 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Guide
UCD — last 1 games: 1W 0D 0L, averaging 3.00 points per game. Last five: W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Across their last 10 games, Finn Harps have recorded 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Finn Harps's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
UCD carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 3.00 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 100% of UCD's games and 60% of Finn Harps's (from UCD's last 1 games and Finn Harps's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects UCD 1.33 xG and Finn Harps 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: UCD attack 0.865 / defence 1.150 | Finn Harps attack 1.026 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.175. Data: built from UCD's last 1 games and Finn Harps's last 36. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: UCD 36% | Draw 26% | Finn Harps 39%. Fair-value odds: UCD 2.80 | Draw 3.89 | Finn Harps 2.60. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Finn Harps are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form UCD (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Finn Harps offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (UCD's last 1 games and Finn Harps's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's sample (UCD 1 games, Finn Harps 36) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: UCD vs Finn Harps | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 2 | Venue: UCD Bowl • Kick-off: Friday 25 February 2022 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: UCD 36% | Draw 26% | Finn Harps 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG UCD 1.33 / Finn Harps 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: UCD attack 0.865 / def 1.150 | Finn Harps attack 1.026 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Finn Harps (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
UCD xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Finn Harps xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ UCD vs Finn Harps FAQs
What time does UCD vs Finn Harps kick off?
UCD vs Finn Harps kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 25 February 2022 at UCD Bowl.
What was the final score in UCD vs Finn Harps?
UCD 0 - 0 Finn Harps.
Where is UCD vs Finn Harps being played?
The match is being played at UCD Bowl.
What competition is UCD vs Finn Harps part of?
UCD vs Finn Harps is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 2) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win UCD vs Finn Harps?
Our statistical model gives UCD a 36% chance of winning, Finn Harps a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Finn Harps the favourite.
Will both teams score in UCD vs Finn Harps?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both UCD and Finn Harps will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will UCD vs Finn Harps have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
UCD's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Finn Harps's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Finn Harps's attack versus UCD's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from UCD's last 1 games and Finn Harps's last 36, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Finn Harps Win
36%
2.80
26%
3.89
39%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
UCD xG
Total xG
2.71
1.39
Finn Harps xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.60
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
9%
11.19
10%
9.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.2 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ UCD vs Finn Harps Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for UCD vs Finn Harps?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are UCD and Finn Harps expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for UCD and 1.39 for Finn Harps, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for UCD vs Finn Harps?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 1 outings, UCD have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 1W 0D 0L record — W across the most recent five.
Finn Harps's form line: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W.
Form-wise this is close to level: UCD on 3.00 PPG, Finn Harps on 3.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
UCD are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Finn Harps are on 5.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. UCD's scoring rate against Finn Harps's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: UCD have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Finn Harps in 0%.
Defensively: Finn Harps in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
UCD
Early Season
Finn Harps
Early Season
UCD (Home) vs Finn Harps (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
UCD
Early Season
Finn Harps
Early Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
❓ UCD vs Finn Harps Form FAQs
What form are UCD and Finn Harps in coming into this match?
UCD have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Finn Harps have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have UCD or Finn Harps been keeping clean sheets recently?
UCD have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Finn Harps in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2022. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent in our data was on 28 October 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: UCD have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
UCD's record when hosting Finn Harps specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
UCD
1
Draws
0
Finn Harps
Recent Meetings
❓ UCD vs Finn Harps H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and Finn Harps?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, UCD have won 3, Finn Harps have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did UCD and Finn Harps last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 October 2022: Finn Harps 1-3 UCD.
Who has won more matches between UCD and Finn Harps?
UCD have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = UCD home games / Finn Harps away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ UCD vs Finn Harps Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in UCD and Finn Harps matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of UCD's recent matches and 0% of Finn Harps's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are UCD and Finn Harps matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of UCD's matches and 100% of Finn Harps's.
Do UCD and Finn Harps matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of UCD's recent matches and 100% of Finn Harps's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at UCD's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at UCD Bowl, Regular Season - 2, as UCD and Finn Harps drew 0-0 in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting UCD 1.33 xG and Finn Harps 1.39 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. UCD fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Finn Harps landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of UCD attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Finn Harps attack 1.03 / defence 1.09, drawn from 1/36 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it UCD 36% | Draw 26% | Finn Harps 39%, with Finn Harps to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (UCD 100%, Finn Harps 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — UCD 3.00 PPG, Finn Harps 3.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. UCD managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Finn Harps managed 0 against a 5.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.