Derry City 2-1 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derry City at 42%, yet in-form Shamrock Rovers provide a compelling counter-argument — this Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Derry City and Shamrock Rovers meet at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in Premier Division, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Friday 25 February 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Derry City's overall Premier Division record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Derry City's home record at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier Division appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Derry City are significantly better at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Shamrock Rovers (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Shamrock Rovers away from home this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Shamrock Rovers are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Derry City half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Shamrock Rovers half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derry City 61% versus Shamrock Rovers 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derry City 44% | Shamrock Rovers 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 1.35 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 1.059 / defence 0.921 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.044 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.175. Data: 37 Derry City games / 37 Shamrock Rovers games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Derry City 42% | Draw 27% | Shamrock Rovers 31%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Shamrock Rovers 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derry City at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shamrock Rovers (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derry City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Derry City 40% | Shamrock Rovers 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 25 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 42% | Draw 27% | Shamrock Rovers 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Derry City 1.35 / Shamrock Rovers 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 1.059 / def 0.921 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.044 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Derry City (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Shamrock Rovers xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 25 February 2022 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Derry City 2 - 1 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 42% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Derry City and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Shamrock Rovers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Derry City and Shamrock Rovers in?
Derry City (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Derry City's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Shamrock Rovers's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — Shamrock Rovers's attack (1.04x) against Derry City's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
42%
2.39
27%
3.72
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Derry City xG
Total xG
2.48
1.13
Shamrock Rovers xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
14%
7.39
8%
12.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.8 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Derry City and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Derry City and 1.13 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 36 outings, Derry City have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 14W 12D 10L record — D-D-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Shamrock Rovers's form line: 24W 6D 6L from 36 games, 2.17 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Shamrock Rovers are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Derry City.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Derry City have posted 1.44 PPG from 18 outings (6W 8D 4L).
On the road, Shamrock Rovers have gone 12W 1D 5L from 18 away games — 2.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shamrock Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Derry City are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.64 scored and 0.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derry City have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derry City and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
Derry City have gone 14W 12D 10L in their last 36 games (1.50 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 24W 6D 6L in their last 36 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derry City at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
Shamrock Rovers's away record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derry City at home: 1.44 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 2.06 PPG.
Have Derry City or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 22 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derry City have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shamrock Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Derry City
3
Draws
5
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Shamrock Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Derry City have won 2, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 22 June 2026, when Shamrock Rovers 1-1 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between Derry City and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Shamrock Rovers see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derry City 61%, Shamrock Rovers 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Derry City) and 39% (Shamrock Rovers).
On the defensive side: Derry City keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Shamrock Rovers in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derry City play Shamrock Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Derry City's recent matches and 44% of Shamrock Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Derry City's recent games and 39% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derry City and Shamrock Rovers tend to score early?
Derry City have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Shamrock Rovers in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Derry City edge out Shamrock Rovers 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat Shamrock Rovers 2-1 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.35 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.13 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.06 / defence 0.92 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.04 / defence 0.91, drawn from 37/37 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 42% | Draw 27% | Shamrock Rovers 31%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 44%, Shamrock Rovers 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derry City's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Derry City winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.