Bohemians 2-2 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 46%, yet in-form Dundalk provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bohemians vs Dundalk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bohemians and Dundalk meet at Dalymount Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Friday 25 February 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bohemians have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Dalymount Park, Bohemians have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dundalk (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Dundalk's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Dundalk are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Bohemians — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games).
Dundalk — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bohemians 67% and Dundalk 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 58% | Dundalk 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.52 xG and Dundalk 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.137 / defence 1.027 | Dundalk attack 0.953 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.175. Data: 36 Bohemians games / 37 Dundalk games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 46% | Draw 25% | Dundalk 29%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Dundalk 3.45. Bohemians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dundalk (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 80% | Dundalk 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 25 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 46% | Draw 25% | Dundalk 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Bohemians 1.52 / Dundalk 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.137 / def 1.027 | Dundalk attack 0.953 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Dundalk xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Dundalk kick off?
Bohemians vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 25 February 2022 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Dundalk?
Bohemians 2 - 2 Dundalk.
Where is Bohemians vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Dundalk part of?
Bohemians vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 46% chance of winning, Dundalk a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Bohemians and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Dundalk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians and Dundalk in?
Bohemians (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Dundalk (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bohemians's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Dundalk's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (0.95x) against Bohemians's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 36/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
46%
2.19
25%
3.92
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.67
1.15
Dundalk xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
14%
6.90
6%
15.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.1 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.15 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bohemians come into this having played 36 games, going 14W 10D 12L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-D.
On the other side, Dundalk sit at 1.33 PPG from 36 outings (13W 9D 14L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Bohemians against 1.33 for Dundalk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Bohemians's home form reads 9W 4D 5L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.72 PPG return.
Away from home, Dundalk have taken 1.06 points per game from 18 outings (4W 7D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bohemians are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.22 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Dundalk in 64%.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
Dundalk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 14W 10D 12L in their last 36 games (1.44 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 13W 9D 14L in their last 36 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Dundalk away?
Bohemians's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.72 PPG; Dundalk away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 19 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bohemians
3
Draws
3
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 4, Dundalk have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 19 June 2026, when Bohemians 1-2 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Dundalk?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 67%, Dundalk 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 72% (Bohemians) and 39% (Dundalk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play Dundalk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Bohemians's games and 61% of Dundalk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Bohemians's matches and 39% of Dundalk's.
Do Bohemians and Dundalk tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Dundalk in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians and Dundalk share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians and Dundalk finished level at 2-2 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.52 xG and Dundalk 1.15 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Dundalk outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.14 / defence 1.03 against Dundalk attack 0.95 / defence 0.95, drawn from 36/37 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 46% | Draw 25% | Dundalk 29%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 58%, Dundalk 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Dundalk's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.44 PPG, Dundalk 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Dundalk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.