Finn Harps 5-0 Longford Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Finn Harps at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Finn Harps vs Longford Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Finn Park plays host to Finn Harps versus Longford Town in Premier Division, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off: Friday 19 November 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Finn Harps have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Finn Harps's home record at Finn Park: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Longford Town's overall Premier Division record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Longford Town have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Finn Harps's 0.90 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Longford Town's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Finn Harps 1W, Longford Town 0W, 2D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2021, ended 3–0 with Finn Harps winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Finn Harps goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Longford Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Finn Harps 63% versus Longford Town 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Finn Harps 57% | Longford Town 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Finn Harps 1.52 xG and Longford Town 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Finn Harps attack 0.908 / defence 1.232 | Longford Town attack 0.570 / defence 1.522. League average goals — home 1.098 / away 1.140. Longford Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.522 — this is suppressing Finn Harps's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Finn Harps games / 35 Longford Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Finn Harps 54% | Draw 26% | Longford Town 20%. Fair-value odds: Finn Harps 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Longford Town 5.00. Finn Harps hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Finn Harps are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Finn Harps if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Finn Harps 80% | Longford Town 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Finn Harps vs Longford Town | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Finn Park • Kick-off: Friday 19 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Finn Harps 54% | Draw 26% | Longford Town 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 43% | xG Finn Harps 1.52 / Longford Town 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Finn Harps attack 0.908 / def 1.232 | Longford Town attack 0.570 / def 1.522 | league avg home 1.098 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Finn Harps (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Finn Harps xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Longford Town xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Finn Harps vs Longford Town kick off?
Finn Harps vs Longford Town kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 19 November 2021 at Finn Park.
What was the final score in Finn Harps vs Longford Town?
Finn Harps 5 - 0 Longford Town.
Where is Finn Harps vs Longford Town being played?
The match is being played at Finn Park.
What competition is Finn Harps vs Longford Town part of?
Finn Harps vs Longford Town is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Finn Harps vs Longford Town?
Our statistical model gives Finn Harps a 54% chance of winning, Longford Town a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Finn Harps the favourite.
Will both teams score in Finn Harps vs Longford Town?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Finn Harps and Longford Town will score (BTTS).
Will Finn Harps vs Longford Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and Longford Town?
Record (3 meetings): Finn Harps 1W | Draws 2 | Longford Town 0W.
What form are Finn Harps and Longford Town in?
Finn Harps (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-D-D. Longford Town (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Finn Harps's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Longford Town's defensive record (1.52x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. Flip it around — Longford Town's attack (0.57x) against Finn Harps's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.4%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Finn Harps Win
54%
1.84
26%
3.85
20%
5.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Finn Harps xG
Total xG
2.32
0.80
Longford Town xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
5.06
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
24%
4.11
4%
23.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.0 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.1 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Finn Harps vs Longford Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Finn Harps and Longford Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Finn Harps and 0.80 for Longford Town, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Finn Harps vs Longford Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Finn Harps come into this having played 35 games, going 10W 11D 14L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-D.
On the other side, Longford Town sit at 0.43 PPG from 35 outings (2W 9D 24L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five.
Finn Harps carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Longford Town — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Finn Harps's home form reads 4W 6D 7L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Longford Town have taken 0.29 points per game from 17 outings (0W 5D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Finn Harps come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Finn Harps are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Longford Town are on 0.63 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Finn Harps have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Finn Harps
Current Season
Longford Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Finn Harps and Longford Town in coming into this match?
Finn Harps have gone 10W 11D 14L in their last 35 games (1.17 PPG), while Longford Town have gone 2W 9D 24L in their last 35 (0.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Finn Harps at home or Longford Town away?
Finn Harps's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Finn Harps at home: 1.06 PPG; Longford Town away: 0.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Finn Harps go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Finn Harps won 5-0 on 19 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Finn Harps have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Longford Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Finn Harps
2
Draws
0
Longford Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and Longford Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Finn Harps have won 2, Longford Town have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Finn Harps and Longford Town last play each other?
They last met on 19 November 2021, when Finn Harps 5-0 Longford Town.
Who has won more matches between Finn Harps and Longford Town?
Finn Harps have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Finn Harps are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Longford Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Finn Harps 65%, Longford Town 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Finn Harps) and 41% (Longford Town).
On the defensive side: Finn Harps have failed to score in 29% of games; Longford Town in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Finn Harps home games / Longford Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Finn Harps play Longford Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Finn Harps's games and 53% of Longford Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Finn Harps vs Longford Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Finn Harps's recent games and 41% of Longford Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Finn Harps and Longford Town tend to score early?
Finn Harps have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Longford Town in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Finn Harps run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Longford Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Finn Harps beat Longford Town 5-0 at Finn Park, Regular Season - 36, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Finn Harps 1.52 xG and Longford Town 0.80 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Finn Harps beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Longford Town landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Finn Harps attack 0.91 / defence 1.23 against Longford Town attack 0.57 / defence 1.52, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Finn Harps 54% | Draw 26% | Longford Town 20%, with Finn Harps to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Finn Harps 57%, Longford Town 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Finn Harps's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Longford Town's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 49% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Finn Harps arrived the stronger side — 1.17 PPG against 0.43. That form edge translated into the three points. Finn Harps (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Longford Town (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.