Finn Harps 5-0 Longford Town – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Finn Harps at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Finn Harps vs Longford Town encounter.

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Full Analysis

Finn Park plays host to Finn Harps versus Longford Town in Premier Division (matchday 36). Kick-off: Friday 19 November 2021 at 19:45 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Finn Harps have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Finn Harps's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Longford Town's record over their last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

When travelling, Longford Town have posted 0W 3D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

Form favours the hosts. Finn Harps's 0.90 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Longford Town's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Finn Harps edge it 1 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.7 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 14 Aug 2021, ended Finn Harps 3–0 Longford Town — a Finn Harps win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Finn Harps goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 35 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Longford Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 35 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 49% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Finn Harps 63% versus Longford Town 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Finn Harps 57% | Longford Town 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Finn Harps 1.52 xG and Longford Town 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Finn Harps attack 0.908 / defence 1.232 | Longford Town attack 0.570 / defence 1.522. League average goals — home 1.098 / away 1.140. Longford Town's defence rating of 1.522 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Finn Harps's projected output up. Longford Town's attack rating of 0.570 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.80. Finn Harps's defence rating of 1.232 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Longford Town's projected output up. Data: built from Finn Harps's last 35 games and Longford Town's last 35.

Result probabilities: Finn Harps 54% | Draw 26% | Longford Town 20%. Fair-value odds: Finn Harps 1.84 | Draw 3.85 | Longford Town 5.06. Finn Harps hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Finn Harps are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Finn Harps if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Finn Harps 80% (last 10 home games) | Longford Town 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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