Dundalk 3-0 Finn Harps – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dundalk at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dundalk vs Finn Harps encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Dundalk welcome Finn Harps to Oriel Park in Premier Division (matchday 3). Kick-off is Monday 28 February 2022 at 19:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Dundalk have gone 6W 2D 2L — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Dundalk have posted 7W 0D 3L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Finn Harps stand at 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Finn Harps's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Dundalk carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Dundalk's games and 60% of Finn Harps's (from Dundalk's last 10 home games and Finn Harps's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Dundalk, 1 for Finn Harps and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Oct 2021, ended Dundalk 2–2 Finn Harps — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Dundalk in-play tendencies (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Finn Harps in-play tendencies (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dundalk 64% and Finn Harps 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 47% | Finn Harps 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.40 xG and Finn Harps 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.113 / defence 1.042 | Finn Harps attack 0.861 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.286 / away 1.221. Data: built from Dundalk's last 38 games and Finn Harps's last 37. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Dundalk 44% | Draw 27% | Finn Harps 29%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 2.27 | Draw 3.76 | Finn Harps 3.40. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dundalk as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dundalk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Dundalk's last 10 home games and Finn Harps's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dundalk 60% (last 10 home games) | Finn Harps 60% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Dundalk 38 games, Finn Harps 37) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Finn Harps | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 3 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Monday 28 February 2022 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 44% | Draw 27% | Finn Harps 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Dundalk 1.40 / Finn Harps 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.113 / def 1.042 | Finn Harps attack 0.861 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.286 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Finn Harps xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dundalk vs Finn Harps FAQs
What time does Dundalk vs Finn Harps kick off?
Dundalk vs Finn Harps kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Monday 28 February 2022 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Finn Harps?
Dundalk 3 - 0 Finn Harps.
Where is Dundalk vs Finn Harps being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Finn Harps part of?
Dundalk vs Finn Harps is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 3) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Finn Harps?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 44% chance of winning, Finn Harps a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Finn Harps?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Dundalk and Finn Harps will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Dundalk vs Finn Harps have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Dundalk's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Finn Harps's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Finn Harps's attack versus Dundalk's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Dundalk's last 38 games and Finn Harps's last 37, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
44%
2.27
27%
3.76
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.50
1.10
Finn Harps xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
15%
6.80
7%
13.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.6 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dundalk vs Finn Harps Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Finn Harps?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Finn Harps expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.10 for Finn Harps, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Finn Harps?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dundalk's recent record stands at 13W 9D 14L from 36 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Finn Harps, meanwhile, have gone 11W 11D 14L across 36 games — 1.22 PPG, with L-D-D-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dundalk on 1.33 PPG, Finn Harps on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Dundalk have managed 9W 2D 7L from their last 18 home games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Finn Harps's away record stands at 6W 5D 7L across their last 18 away games, a 1.28 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Dundalk are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Finn Harps are on 1.22 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dundalk have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Finn Harps in 61%.
Last 36 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Current Season
Finn Harps
Current Season
Dundalk (Home) vs Finn Harps (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dundalk
Current Season
Finn Harps
Current Season
❓ Dundalk vs Finn Harps Form FAQs
What form are Dundalk and Finn Harps in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 13W 9D 14L in their last 36 games (1.33 PPG), while Finn Harps have gone 11W 11D 14L in their last 36 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Finn Harps away?
Dundalk's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 1.61 PPG; Finn Harps away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2021. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent in our data was on 14 October 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Dundalk have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 28 Feb 2022, when Dundalk won Dundalk 3-0 Finn Harps.
Dundalk's record when hosting Finn Harps specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Dundalk
2
Draws
1
Finn Harps
Recent Meetings
❓ Dundalk vs Finn Harps H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Finn Harps?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Dundalk have won 5, Finn Harps have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Finn Harps last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 October 2022: Finn Harps 1-2 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Finn Harps?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Finn Harps are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 67%, Finn Harps 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Dundalk and 67% for Finn Harps. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Finn Harps in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Finn Harps away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dundalk vs Finn Harps Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dundalk and Finn Harps matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Dundalk's games and 61% of Finn Harps's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Dundalk and Finn Harps matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Dundalk's matches and 67% of Finn Harps's.
Do Dundalk and Finn Harps matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 89% of Dundalk's recent matches and 72% of Finn Harps's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dundalk run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Finn Harps.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat Finn Harps 3-0 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.40 xG and Finn Harps 1.10 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Dundalk beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Finn Harps landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.11 / defence 1.04 against Finn Harps attack 0.86 / defence 0.98, drawn from 38/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 44% | Draw 27% | Finn Harps 29%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 47%, Finn Harps 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Finn Harps's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dundalk 1.33 PPG, Finn Harps 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dundalk win broke the near-deadlock. Dundalk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Finn Harps (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.