Shamrock Rovers 2-0 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Shamrock Rovers take on St Patrick's Athl..
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 3 as Shamrock Rovers welcome St Patrick's Athl. to Tallaght Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 20 February 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Shamrock Rovers — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Shamrock Rovers at Tallaght Stadium this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tallaght Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Shamrock Rovers are significantly better at Tallaght Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
St Patrick's Athl.'s form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Shamrock Rovers at 1.40 PPG versus St Patrick's Athl.'s 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Shamrock Rovers, 3 for St Patrick's Athl. and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2025, ended 0–1 with St Patrick's Athl. winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Shamrock Rovers in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
St Patrick's Athl. in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shamrock Rovers 54% versus St Patrick's Athl. 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shamrock Rovers 50% | St Patrick's Athl. 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 0.95 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.096 / defence 0.952 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.806 / defence 0.820. League average goals — home 1.062 / away 1.053. Data: 36 Shamrock Rovers games / 37 St Patrick's Athl. games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 35% | Draw 38% | St Patrick's Athl. 27%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 2.86 | Draw 2.63 | St Patrick's Athl. 3.70. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 27% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.76 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Shamrock Rovers 40% | St Patrick's Athl. 20% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 20 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 35% | Draw 38% | St Patrick's Athl. 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 37% | xG Shamrock Rovers 0.95 / St Patrick's Athl. 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.096 / def 0.952 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.806 / def 0.820 | league avg home 1.062 / away 1.053 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.81
St Patrick's Athl. xG
37%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 20 February 2026 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Shamrock Rovers 2 - 0 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 35% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 27% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl.?
Record (7 meetings): Shamrock Rovers 2W | Draws 2 | St Patrick's Athl. 3W.
What form are Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shamrock Rovers's attack rating (1.10) and St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Shamrock Rovers's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.87
38%
2.60
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
1.76
0.81
St Patrick's Athl. xG
2.87
35%
Home win
2.60
38%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
39%
2.60
Win to Nil
16%
6.44
10%
9.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.2 | 13.9 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 13.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.9%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 0.81 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shamrock Rovers come into this having played 72 games, going 36W 19D 17L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, St Patrick's Athl. sit at 1.54 PPG from 72 outings (30W 21D 21L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shamrock Rovers on 1.76 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Shamrock Rovers's home form reads 21W 9D 6L across 36 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, St Patrick's Athl. have taken 1.22 points per game from 36 outings (11W 11D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shamrock Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shamrock Rovers are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.29 scored and 0.96 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Shamrock Rovers have gone 36W 19D 17L in their last 72 games (1.76 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 30W 21D 21L in their last 72 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shamrock Rovers at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
Shamrock Rovers's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shamrock Rovers at home: 2.00 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Shamrock Rovers or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. They last met on 29 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Shamrock Rovers have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 May 2025, when Shamrock Rovers won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shamrock Rovers's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Shamrock Rovers
2
Draws
3
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, St Patrick's Athl. have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Shamrock Rovers 1-0 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl.?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shamrock Rovers 44%, St Patrick's Athl. 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Shamrock Rovers) and 44% (St Patrick's Athl.).
On the defensive side: Shamrock Rovers keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; St Patrick's Athl. in 39%; St Patrick's Athl. in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shamrock Rovers play St Patrick's Athl.?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Shamrock Rovers's recent matches and 42% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Shamrock Rovers's recent games and 44% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Shamrock Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shamrock Rovers cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over St Patrick's Athl..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat St Patrick's Athl. 2-0 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 0.95 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.81 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Shamrock Rovers beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. St Patrick's Athl. landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.10 / defence 0.95 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.81 / defence 0.82, drawn from 36/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 35% | Draw 38% | St Patrick's Athl. 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Shamrock Rovers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 50%, St Patrick's Athl. 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shamrock Rovers 1.76 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shamrock Rovers win broke the near-deadlock. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.