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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Bohemians host St Patrick's Athl. at Aviva Stadium in Premier Division, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 8 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Premier Division games this season, Bohemians have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Bohemians's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Aviva Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Aviva Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Bohemians are significantly better at Aviva Stadium than their overall form suggests.

St Patrick's Athl. — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

St Patrick's Athl. away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour St Patrick's Athl. — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Bohemians have won 1, St Patrick's Athl. 2, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Season Statistics

The visitors have accumulated 13W 13D 10L from their 36 Premier Division appearances this term. Their scoring output is 1.2 per match with 0.9 conceded on average. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 0-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-1 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 14 games this season. 18 clean sheets this season (10 at home, 8 away). Scored 2+ goals in 5 of 36 games (14%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 4-3-3. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game, 0.08 reds per game.

Trading Patterns

Bohemians in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).

St Patrick's Athl. in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 49% versus St Patrick's Athl. 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 42% | St Patrick's Athl. 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.22 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.069 / defence 1.048 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.921 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.009. Data: 36 Bohemians games / 36 St Patrick's Athl. games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Bohemians 41% | Draw 31% | St Patrick's Athl. 29%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | St Patrick's Athl. 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Bohemians as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form St Patrick's Athl. (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 40% | St Patrick's Athl. 20% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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