Shamrock Rovers 1-1 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shamrock Rovers (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shamrock Rovers face Dundalk.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dundalk make the trip to Tallaght Stadium to face Shamrock Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Monday 23 February 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shamrock Rovers have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Tallaght Stadium, Shamrock Rovers have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tallaght Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Shamrock Rovers are significantly better at Tallaght Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Dundalk (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 0.30 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Dundalk haven't played a Premier Division game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Dundalk away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Shamrock Rovers. A 1.10 PPG lead over Dundalk (1.40 vs 0.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Shamrock Rovers lead 4W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.4 per game from 7 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2024, ended 1–0 with Shamrock Rovers winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Shamrock Rovers — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Dundalk — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shamrock Rovers 56% versus Dundalk 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shamrock Rovers 53% | Dundalk 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 1.65 xG and Dundalk 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.204 / defence 0.860 | Dundalk attack 1.016 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.112 / away 1.010. Dundalk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.233 — this is suppressing Shamrock Rovers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Shamrock Rovers games / 2 Dundalk games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 52% | Draw 31% | Dundalk 17%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 1.92 | Draw 3.23 | Dundalk 5.88. Shamrock Rovers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Shamrock Rovers 40% | Dundalk 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 23 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 52% | Draw 31% | Dundalk 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Shamrock Rovers 1.65 / Dundalk 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.204 / def 0.860 | Dundalk attack 1.016 / def 1.233 | league avg home 1.112 / away 1.010 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Dundalk xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 23 February 2026 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Shamrock Rovers 1 - 1 Dundalk.
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 52% chance of winning, Dundalk a 17% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk?
Record (7 meetings): Shamrock Rovers 4W | Draws 1 | Dundalk 2W.
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk in?
Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Dundalk (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Shamrock Rovers's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Dundalk's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (1.02x) against Shamrock Rovers's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
The sample (37/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 2-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
52%
1.91
31%
3.27
17%
5.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
2.53
0.88
Dundalk xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
5.90
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
19%
5.21
Win to Nil
22%
4.60
3%
30.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.6 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 0.88 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shamrock Rovers come into this having played 36 games, going 19W 9D 8L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Dundalk sit at 0.72 PPG from 36 outings (5W 11D 20L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five. Dundalk haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Shamrock Rovers carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.11 PPG clear of Dundalk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Shamrock Rovers's home form reads 12W 3D 3L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Dundalk have taken 0.50 points per game from 18 outings (1W 6D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shamrock Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shamrock Rovers are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 0.64 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
Dundalk
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Shamrock Rovers have gone 19W 9D 8L in their last 36 games (1.83 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 5W 11D 20L in their last 36 (0.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shamrock Rovers at home or Dundalk away?
Shamrock Rovers's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shamrock Rovers at home: 2.17 PPG; Dundalk away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Shamrock Rovers or Dundalk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Dundalk in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shamrock Rovers have gone 4W 2D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Shamrock Rovers
2
Draws
3
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, Dundalk have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when Shamrock Rovers 3-2 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shamrock Rovers 39%, Dundalk 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Shamrock Rovers) and 39% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: Shamrock Rovers keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Dundalk in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shamrock Rovers play Dundalk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Shamrock Rovers's recent matches and 67% of Dundalk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Shamrock Rovers's recent games and 39% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk tend to score early?
Shamrock Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Dundalk in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk finished level at 1-1 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 1.65 xG and Dundalk 0.88 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.20 / defence 0.86 against Dundalk attack 1.02 / defence 1.23, drawn from 37/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 52% | Draw 31% | Dundalk 17%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 53%, Dundalk 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Dundalk's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.72. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.