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Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk encounter.

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Analysis

Dundalk make the trip to Tallaght Stadium to face Shamrock Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Monday 23 February 2026 at 20:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Shamrock Rovers have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Tallaght Stadium, Shamrock Rovers have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tallaght Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Shamrock Rovers are significantly better at Tallaght Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Dundalk (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 0.30 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Dundalk haven't played a Premier Division game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Dundalk away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form ledger tips toward Shamrock Rovers. A 1.10 PPG lead over Dundalk (1.40 vs 0.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Shamrock Rovers lead 4W to 3W over the last 8 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.4 per game from 8 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2024, ended 1–0 with Shamrock Rovers winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Stats

Across 36 matches this season, Shamrock Rovers have gone 19W 9D 8L. Their scoring output is 1.6 per match with 0.9 conceded on average. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 1-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-3 (H) / 2-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 5 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 7 games this season. 12 clean sheets this season (10 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 5 of 36 games (14%). Penalties this season: 1 scored / 0 missed from 1 awarded. Most used formation: 5-3-2. Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards per game, 0.06 reds per game.

Trading & In-Play

Shamrock Rovers — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Dundalk — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shamrock Rovers 56% versus Dundalk 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shamrock Rovers 53% | Dundalk 28%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 1.65 xG and Dundalk 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.204 / defence 0.860 | Dundalk attack 1.016 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.112 / away 1.010. Dundalk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.233 — this is suppressing Shamrock Rovers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Shamrock Rovers games / 2 Dundalk games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.

Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 52% | Draw 31% | Dundalk 17%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 1.92 | Draw 3.23 | Dundalk 5.88. Shamrock Rovers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Shamrock Rovers 40% | Dundalk 60%.

The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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