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Poisson model favours St Patrick's Athl. (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as St Patrick's Athl. face Dundalk.

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Analysis & Preview

A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Dundalk travel to Richmond Park to take on St Patrick's Athl.. The game is scheduled for Friday 27 February 2026, 19:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Premier Division games this season, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

St Patrick's Athl. at Richmond Park this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Richmond Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Dundalk stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 Premier Division matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Dundalk haven't played a Premier Division game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Dundalk away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

St Patrick's Athl. carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for St Patrick's Athl., 2 for Dundalk and 2 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2024, ended 2–1 with St Patrick's Athl. winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Season Statistics

St Patrick's Athl.'s full-season record stands at 13W 13D 10L from 36 games. Attacking returns: 1.2 goals per game; defensive: 0.9 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 0-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-1 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 14 games this season. 18 clean sheets this season (10 at home, 8 away). Scored 2+ goals in 5 of 36 games (14%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 4-3-3. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game, 0.08 reds per game.

In-Play Data

St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 39% of games.

Dundalk trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 33% versus Dundalk 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (St Patrick's Athl. 39% | Dundalk 28%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.35 xG and Dundalk 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.072 / defence 0.933 | Dundalk attack 1.024 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.085 / away 1.016. Data: 38 St Patrick's Athl. games / 3 Dundalk games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.

Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 42% | Draw 35% | Dundalk 23%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.38 | Draw 2.86 | Dundalk 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: St Patrick's Athl. 30% | Dundalk 60% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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