Dundalk 1-1 Drogheda United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Drogheda United at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dundalk vs Drogheda United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dundalk and Drogheda United meet at Oriel Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Friday 20 February 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Dundalk's overall Premier Division record this term: 0W 3D 7L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Dundalk haven't played a Premier Division game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Dundalk's home record at Oriel Park: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Premier Division appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Drogheda United (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Drogheda United have posted 1W 6D 3L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Drogheda United are 0.70 PPG clear of Dundalk in recent Premier Division fixtures (1.00 vs 0.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Dundalk, 1 for Drogheda United and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Dundalk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 11% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Drogheda United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 39% versus Drogheda United 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dundalk 28% | Drogheda United 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 0.83 xG and Drogheda United 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 0.858 / defence 1.150 | Drogheda United attack 0.953 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.062 / away 1.053. Data: 1 Dundalk games / 38 Drogheda United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Dundalk 24% | Draw 36% | Drogheda United 40%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 4.17 | Draw 2.78 | Drogheda United 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Dundalk dominate the H2H record, yet Drogheda United are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Drogheda United as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Drogheda United if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Dundalk 20% | Drogheda United 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Drogheda United | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 20 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 24% | Draw 36% | Drogheda United 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG Dundalk 0.83 / Drogheda United 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 0.858 / def 1.150 | Drogheda United attack 0.953 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.062 / away 1.053 • Poisson stance: Drogheda United (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Drogheda United xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Drogheda United kick off?
Dundalk vs Drogheda United kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 20 February 2026 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Drogheda United?
Dundalk 1 - 1 Drogheda United.
Where is Dundalk vs Drogheda United being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Drogheda United part of?
Dundalk vs Drogheda United is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Drogheda United?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 24% chance of winning, Drogheda United a 40% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Drogheda United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Drogheda United?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Dundalk and Drogheda United will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Drogheda United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Drogheda United?
Record (6 meetings): Dundalk 3W | Draws 2 | Drogheda United 1W.
What form are Dundalk and Drogheda United in?
Dundalk (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Drogheda United (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Dundalk's attack rating (0.86) and Drogheda United's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 0.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Drogheda United's attack (0.95x) against Dundalk's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
The sample (1/38 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Drogheda United Win
24%
4.20
36%
2.80
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Dundalk xG
Total xG
1.99
1.15
Drogheda United xG
4.20
24%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
43%
2.30
Win to Nil
8%
13.32
18%
5.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 15.8 | 9.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Drogheda United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Drogheda United expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.15 for Drogheda United, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Drogheda United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 36 outings, Dundalk have picked up 0.72 PPG on a 5W 11D 20L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. Dundalk haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Drogheda United's form line: 12W 15D 9L from 36 games, 1.42 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-L.
Put side by side, Drogheda United are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dundalk.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Dundalk have posted 0.94 PPG from 18 outings (4W 5D 9L).
On the road, Drogheda United have gone 4W 9D 5L from 18 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dundalk are averaging 0.64 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Drogheda United are on 1.06 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Drogheda United in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Pre-Season
Drogheda United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and Drogheda United in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 5W 11D 20L in their last 36 games (0.72 PPG), while Drogheda United have gone 12W 15D 9L in their last 36 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Drogheda United away?
Drogheda United's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 0.94 PPG; Drogheda United away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Dundalk or Drogheda United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Drogheda United in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Drogheda United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Dundalk
4
Draws
2
Drogheda United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Drogheda United?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 4, Drogheda United have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Drogheda United last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Drogheda United 2-3 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Drogheda United?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dundalk see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Drogheda United see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 11% (Dundalk) and 50% (Drogheda United) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Dundalk and 39% for Drogheda United.
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Drogheda United in 33%; Dundalk have failed to score in 72% of games; Drogheda United in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Drogheda United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play Drogheda United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 11% of Dundalk's recent matches and 50% of Drogheda United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dundalk vs Drogheda United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Dundalk's recent games and 39% of Drogheda United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dundalk and Drogheda United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk and Drogheda United finished level at 1-1 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 0.83 xG and Drogheda United 1.15 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Drogheda United attack 0.95 / defence 0.92, drawn from 1/38 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 24% | Draw 36% | Drogheda United 40%, with Drogheda United to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 28%, Drogheda United 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Drogheda United's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Drogheda United arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.72. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.