Sligo Rovers 1-0 Finn Harps – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Finn Harps at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sligo Rovers vs Finn Harps fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sligo Rovers host Finn Harps at The Showgrounds in Premier Division, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 April 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sligo Rovers 0.90 xG and Finn Harps 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sligo Rovers attack 1.002 / defence 1.096 | Finn Harps attack 0.929 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 0.747 / away 1.210. Finn Harps bring a strong defensive rating of 1.206 — this is suppressing Sligo Rovers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Sligo Rovers games / 4 Finn Harps games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 26% | Draw 31% | Finn Harps 43%. Fair-value odds: Sligo Rovers 3.85 | Draw 3.23 | Finn Harps 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Finn Harps at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Finn Harps offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (4 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sligo Rovers vs Finn Harps | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: The Showgrounds • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Apr 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 26% | Draw 31% | Finn Harps 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Sligo Rovers 0.90 / Finn Harps 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Sligo Rovers attack 1.002 / def 1.096 | Finn Harps attack 0.929 / def 1.206 | league avg home 0.747 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Finn Harps (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Sligo Rovers xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Finn Harps xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sligo Rovers vs Finn Harps kick off?
Sligo Rovers vs Finn Harps kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 17 April 2021 at The Showgrounds.
What was the final score in Sligo Rovers vs Finn Harps?
Sligo Rovers 1 - 0 Finn Harps.
Where is Sligo Rovers vs Finn Harps being played?
The match is being played at The Showgrounds.
What competition is Sligo Rovers vs Finn Harps part of?
Sligo Rovers vs Finn Harps is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Sligo Rovers vs Finn Harps?
Our statistical model gives Sligo Rovers a 26% chance of winning, Finn Harps a 43% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Finn Harps the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sligo Rovers vs Finn Harps?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sligo Rovers and Finn Harps will score (BTTS).
Will Sligo Rovers vs Finn Harps have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Finn Harps?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sligo Rovers and Finn Harps in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sligo Rovers's attack rating (1.00) and Finn Harps's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Finn Harps's attack versus Sligo Rovers's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (4/4 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Finn Harps Win
26%
3.82
31%
3.23
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Sligo Rovers xG
Total xG
2.13
1.23
Finn Harps xG
3.82
26%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
8%
13.10
17%
5.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 14.6 | 9.0 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sligo Rovers vs Finn Harps?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Sligo Rovers and Finn Harps expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Sligo Rovers and 1.23 for Finn Harps, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Sligo Rovers vs Finn Harps?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sligo Rovers
Pre-Season
Finn Harps
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Jun 2022, when Sligo Rovers won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sligo Rovers's record when hosting Finn Harps specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Sligo Rovers
1
Draws
2
Finn Harps
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Finn Harps?
From 8 meetings on record, Sligo Rovers have won 5, Finn Harps have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sligo Rovers and Finn Harps last play each other?
They last met on 19 August 2022, when Finn Harps 3-2 Sligo Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Sligo Rovers and Finn Harps?
Sligo Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sligo Rovers home games / Finn Harps away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Sligo Rovers defy the odds to beat Finn Harps 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sligo Rovers beat Finn Harps 1-0 at The Showgrounds, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 0.90 xG and Finn Harps 1.23 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Finn Harps landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 1.00 / defence 1.10 against Finn Harps attack 0.93 / defence 1.21, drawn from 4/4 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 26% | Draw 31% | Finn Harps 43%, with Finn Harps to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Sligo Rovers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.