Longford Town 0-4 Drogheda United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Longford Town at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Longford Town vs Drogheda United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 4 as Longford Town welcome Drogheda United to Bishopsgate Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 April 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Longford Town 1.01 xG and Drogheda United 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Longford Town attack 0.953 / defence 1.034 | Drogheda United attack 0.862 / defence 1.273. League average goals — home 0.829 / away 1.045. Drogheda United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.273 — this is suppressing Longford Town's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Longford Town games / 3 Drogheda United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Longford Town 36% | Draw 31% | Drogheda United 32%. Fair-value odds: Longford Town 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Drogheda United 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Longford Town as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Longford Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.94 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Longford Town vs Drogheda United | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Bishopsgate Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Apr 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Longford Town 36% | Draw 31% | Drogheda United 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Longford Town 1.01 / Drogheda United 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Longford Town attack 0.953 / def 1.034 | Drogheda United attack 0.862 / def 1.273 | league avg home 0.829 / away 1.045 • Poisson stance: Longford Town (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Longford Town xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Drogheda United xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Longford Town vs Drogheda United kick off?
Longford Town vs Drogheda United kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 10 April 2021 at Bishopsgate Stadium.
What was the final score in Longford Town vs Drogheda United?
Longford Town 0 - 4 Drogheda United.
Where is Longford Town vs Drogheda United being played?
The match is being played at Bishopsgate Stadium.
What competition is Longford Town vs Drogheda United part of?
Longford Town vs Drogheda United is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Longford Town vs Drogheda United?
Our statistical model gives Longford Town a 36% chance of winning, Drogheda United a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Longford Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Longford Town vs Drogheda United?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Longford Town and Drogheda United will score (BTTS).
Will Longford Town vs Drogheda United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Longford Town and Drogheda United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Longford Town and Drogheda United in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Longford Town's attack rating (0.95) and Drogheda United's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Drogheda United's attack versus Longford Town's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Longford Town Win
36%
2.76
31%
3.18
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Longford Town xG
Total xG
1.94
0.93
Drogheda United xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
14%
7.01
12%
8.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Longford Town vs Drogheda United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Longford Town and Drogheda United expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Longford Town and 0.93 for Drogheda United, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Longford Town vs Drogheda United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Longford Town
Pre-Season
Drogheda United
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Longford Town and Drogheda United runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Apr 2021, when Drogheda United won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Longford Town's record when hosting Drogheda United specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Longford Town
1
Draws
3
Drogheda United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Longford Town and Drogheda United?
From 4 meetings on record, Longford Town have won 0, Drogheda United have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Longford Town and Drogheda United last play each other?
They last met on 15 October 2021, when Drogheda United 2-0 Longford Town.
Who has won more matches between Longford Town and Drogheda United?
Drogheda United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Longford Town home games / Drogheda United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Drogheda United run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Longford Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Drogheda United beat Longford Town 0-4 at Bishopsgate Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Longford Town 1.01 xG and Drogheda United 0.93 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Longford Town fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Drogheda United outscored their 0.93 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Longford Town attack 0.95 / defence 1.03 against Drogheda United attack 0.86 / defence 1.27, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Longford Town 36% | Draw 31% | Drogheda United 32%, with Longford Town to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Drogheda United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.